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AXPZ20 KNHC 221602
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM MARIE IS CENTERED NEAR 13.1N 102.5W AT 22/1500 UTC...ABOUT 280 NM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO...MOVING W AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM NW SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLE. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL IS CENTERED NEAR 22.1N 124.1W AT 22/1500 UTC...ABOUT 785 NM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT AND SW QUADRANT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.0N 135.6W AT 22/1500 UTC...ABOUT 1150 E OF HILO HAWAII...MOVING NE OR 055 DEG AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 10N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 240 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH E OF 85W...AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 95W.


...DISCUSSION... A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 40N145W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS W OF 110W OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCES OF TROPICAL STORMS KARINA AND LOWELL. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS LOWELL MOVES NORTHWEST AGAINST THE RIDGE...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING AND SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE FAR NW PORTION WELL AWAY FROM LOWELL.

$$ CHRISTENSEN

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