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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040952
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Dec 04 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends nw off the Pacific coast of Costa
Rica at 11N85W to 11N88W, then turns sw to 09N92W, then nw
through an embedded 1012 mb surface low at 11.5N102.5W, then sw
to 09N126W where scatterometer winds indicate an ITCZ forms, and
extends w to beyond 09N140W.

Clusters of scattered moderate convection is noted s of the
eastern segment of the monsoon trough within 75 nm of 05N78W,
08.5N86.5W and 11N93W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted along the monsoon trough within 75 nm of
07N94.5W, and within 75 nm either side of lines from 11N103W to
10N113W to 09N121W and from 11.5N116W to 11N126W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of California: Strong nw winds and 5 to 8 ft seas currently
to the n of 27N will diminish/subside to a fresh breeze this
afternoon and further diminish to a moderate breeze tonight,
with the associated seas subsiding to 2 to 4 ft. Light to
gentle southerly flow is expected n of 29N on Mon, with light
and variable winds forecast across the gulf waters s of 29N. The
next cold front is expected to pass across the northern gulf on
Wed, with fresh to locally strong post-frontal flow forecast on
Wed night.

Moderate to fresh w to nw winds, with combined seas of 5 to 8
ft, are currently observed across the Pacific waters w of 107W.
The pressure gradient will gradually relax over the next few
days, with a gentle to moderate n breeze expected by Mon, as
seas subside to 5 to 8 ft in nw swell mainly across the
open Pacific waters n of 28N on Wed.

A low level trough extends from 18N102W to 12N107W with clusters
of moderate to locally strong convection flaring within 120 nm
either side of the trough axis. This trough will appear
intermittently on the surface analysis and is shifts e to along
102W on Tue.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: The next strong n surge is expected to
begin early Thu afternoon and quickly strengthen to minimal gale
force late Thu afternoon, with the gale conditions continuing
through sunrise on Sat.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal ene winds
are expected to begin again late Tue night.

Light to gentle northerly winds, and combined seas of 3 to 5 ft,
are occurring elsewhere n of the monsoon trough, while light to
moderate sw flow is observed to the s of the monsoon trough,
except moderate to fresh southerly breeze is forecast beyond 200
nm. Combined seas of 4 to 6 ft in the long-period sw swell are
through the middle of next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge from 32N136W to 14N115W will shift to a
position from 32N132W to 15N102W on Mon night, then reorientate
around a surface high shifting se into the n-central waters near
32N126W on Wed. Moderate to locally fresh n to ne flow is
expected ne of the ridge early this week. Fresh ne trades
currently s of the ridge are expected to weaken from the n
through Tue night, then increase to moderate to fresh again on
Wed. Seas of 7 to 10 ft in mixing sw and nw swell are expected
elsewhere n of the ITCZ west of 112W today, then a subsiding
trend is expected from the n on Mon through Thu.

$$
Nelson

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