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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290310
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUL 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E IS CENTERED NEAR 17.0N 131.2W 1007 MB AT 0300 UTC JUL 29 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS CONFINED TO WITHIN 120 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLE AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A FAIRLY DRY ENVIRONMENT. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM SE QUADRANT. THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY FORECASTS THE DEPRESSION TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH WED AND THEN DISSIPATE BY LATE THU. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM HONDURAS S TO 10N ALONG 90W MOVING W AT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE WAVE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED BELOW.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 115W FROM 09N-16N MOVING W AT 10- 15 KT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE EARLIER IS BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR 07N120W. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY INTERACT OR BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 139W FROM 10N-17N MOVING W 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. THE WAVE WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA EARLY WED.

BROAD LOW PRES NEAR 07N119W 1007 MB WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH...AND ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...MOVING W 15-20 KT. BANDS AND LINES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WERE OCCURRING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS CIRCULATION...WITHIN 270 NM ACROSS THE NE AND 300 NM SW SEMICIRCLES. THIS LOW PRES AREA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT CONTINUES MOVING W.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N95W TO 09N112W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 90-120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM AND 240 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 91W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 110W.


...DISCUSSION...

A 1029 MB HIGH PRES CENTER IS ANALYZED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 45N136W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 32N133W TO NEAR 22N115W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 110W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TYPICAL TROUGH SEEN ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA IS HELPING TO INDUCE NW WINDS OF 15 KT WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH RESULTANT SEAS OF 6-8 FT. THE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO RELAX ENOUGH BY WED AFTERNOON TO ALLOW THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WITH SEAS LOWERING TO AROUND 5-6 FT.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE TROPICAL REGION IS ALLOWING FOR MODERATE BUT WEAKENING TRADE WINDS TO EXIST OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 10N-18N W OF 135W. THESE WINDS WILL BE REPLACED BY STRONGER WINDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPRESSION AS IT TRACKS WNW. PRESENT SEAS OF 6-8 FT THERE ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO HIGHER RANGES AS WELL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE ADDED INGREDIENT OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW WILL ALLOW WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT BY MID-MORNING WED. THE SWELL AREA IS EXPECTED TO SHRINK BY EARLY THU.

$$ COBB

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