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AXPZ20 KNHC 252135
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 01N TO 11N ALONG ROUGHLY 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W AROUND 10-15 KT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 02N TO 13N ALONG ROUGHLY 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 360 NM W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 09N TONIGHT. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS FORECAST AFTER WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT IN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL NEAR THE WAVE S OF 10N UNDER MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO WED.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ HAVE BROKEN DOWN WITH LIGHT WINDS FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHERE THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS CLIMATOLOGICAL FOUND. ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVES...A LOW PRES AREA IS NOTED NEAR 09N117W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W QUADRANT OF THE LOW. A SECOND LOW PRES AREA WAS NOTED NEAR 13N131W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 E SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW.


...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W... THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REACHES FROM ROUGHLY 30N125W TO NEAR CABO CORRIENTES JALISCO. RESIDENT TROUGHING FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS FAIRLY WEAK. THIS IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SW TO W WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT OFF THE BAJA COAST...DUE IN PART TO LINGERING LONGER PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS WEST OF 100W. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FLARING ALONG THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF 105W. LOW PRES IS STARTING TO FORM ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE FARTHER SOUTH NEAR 10N
...AND THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS AND CONVECTION N OF 15N E OF 100W INTO MID WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS LOW TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND DRIFTING WNW THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN STRENGTH...TIMING AND POSITION IN THE MODELS...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NE OF CLIPPERTON ISLAND NEAR 10N109W BY LATE WED THEN DEVELOP FURTHER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS IT MOVES NNW TOWARD THE ISLAS REVILLAGIGEDO.

S OF 15N E OF 110W... STRONG GAP WIND FLOW TO 25 KT IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN EXITING TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 88W. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT AND WILL BUILD TO 8 FT IN THE AREAS OF THE STRONG GAP WINDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE AS THE TROPICAL WAVES SHIFT WESTWARD. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RAPIDSCAT PASS FROM EARLY TODAY INDICATED THE FIRST SIGNS OF A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 100W. WHILE ONLY MODERATE SW FLOW IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THIS LOW THROUGH TUE...SEAS WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 8 FT AS THE WINDS INCREASE INTO THE LOW DUE TO PRE-EXISTING SOUTHERLY SWELL IN THE AREA THAT IS KEEPING COMBINED WAVE HEIGHTS TO NEAR 7 FT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL START BY MID WEEK AS CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE LOW PRES NEAR 109W TO DEVELOP FURTHER POSSIBLY INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THE LOW WILL SHIFT WNW PASSING TO THE NE OF CLIPPERTON ISLAND NEAR 10N109W THU THEN NW OF THE AREA FRI.

A NEW BATCH OF SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 19-21 SECOND RANGE CROSSED THE EQUATOR OVERNIGHT. IT WILL REACH THE COAST WITH 3-4 FT SEAS FROM NEAR THE BORDER OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA SOUTHWARD AS WELL AS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM ACAPULCO TO PUERTO ANGEL WITH 5-6 FT SEAS BY TUE MORNING AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST S OF TODOS SANTOS ON THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY WED MORNING. THIS SWELL WILL PRODUCE LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTLINE. CAUTION SHOULD BE USED ENTERING AND EXITING HARBORS DURING THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE... A 1010 MB LOW PRES AREA IS NOTED ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 09N117W AND WAS DEPICTED WELL IN A 16 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS. DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS SHEARING THE CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW PRES TO THE WEST...LEAVING THE CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED. 15 KT FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS LOW MAY INCREASE TO 20 KT TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 8 FT SEAS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH THIS LOW THROUGH 48 HOURS. A SECOND 1009 MB LOW PRES AREA IS CENTERED NEAR 13N131W. WHILE STRONG CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR THIS LOW CENTER...IT REMAINS SHEAR TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER DUE A NEARBY UPPER TROUGH. AS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW...THIS LOW PRES IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WESTERLY SHEAR. 20 TO 25 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT ARE NOTED WITHIN 150 NM. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE LOW WEAKENS...BUT SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL PERSIST IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL FROM 13N TO 18N W OF 127W THROUGH TUE. FARTHER NORTH...A WEAK COLD FRONT REACHES FROM 30N128W TO 26N137W TO 22N140W. 20 TO 25 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS NOTED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 27N...ALONG WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT THROUGH EARLY TUE.

$$ CHRISTENSEN

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