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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300915
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM RACHEL NEARLY STATIONARY LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 117.5W 1005 MB AT 0900 UTC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. STEADY WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH RACHEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS WEST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS.

1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 13N97W REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH ROUGHLY 300 NM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THIS IS IN THE AREA WHERE A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES HAVE ACCUMULATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ENHANCING VORTICITY ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FLARING WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS BROAD LOW PRES WILL SLOWLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT DRIFTS TO THE WNW PARALLELING THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE LOW PRES HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THAT COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 13N92W TO LOW PRES 1007 MB NEAR 13N97W TO 12N109W TO 14N115W TO 13N130W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 13N130W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 107W.


...DISCUSSION... MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING FRESH SW WIND FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 115W LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED NEAR 16N102W. SW WIND WAVES WILL ADD TO 6-8 FT SEAS ALREADY IN PLACE FROM CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL AND BUILD SEAS TO 8-10 FT FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 98W AND 117W...AND ALSO N OF 13N BETWEEN 98W AND 103W.

$$ MUNDELL

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