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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061536
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT FEB 6 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING... TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO. STRONG 40-45 KT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF...AND ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING DUE TO STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE W GULF OF MEXICO. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW STORM FORCE SUN NIGHT...THEN REMAIN 30-40 KT SEVERAL MORE DAYS INTO MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER E MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST STORM CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP MON NIGHT. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LARGE 8-15 FT NE SWELL EXTENDING FAR BEYOND ITS SOURCE REGION AND MERGING WITH SWELL GENERATED FROM THE PAPAGAYO EVENT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING... STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA SPILLING THROUGH GAPS AND BAYS NEAR THE COAST. A LARGE PLUME OF 20-30 KT NE WINDS EXTEND ACROSS GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS TO NEAR 06N95W WITH SEAS TO 8-10 FT. A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND SUN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND PUSH GAP WINDS NEAR PAPAGAYO IN EXCESS OF 35 KT IN ABOUT 21-24 HOURS. THIS PROLONGED WIND EVENT IS IMPACTING THE ENTIRE REGION FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHERN MEXICO...WITH DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH DOWNWINDS FROM TEHUANTEPEC. A VERY LARGE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 90W-110W.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N89W TO 03N101W TO 05N112W TO 02N121W TO 05N129W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 104W-113W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS W OF 128W.


...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS N OF 18N W OF 110W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING 20-30 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ W OF 117W...WITH HIGHEST WINDS CENTERED NEAR 08N 130W. THE ENHANCED TRADES ARE SUPPORTING 9-13 FT SEAS IN THE AREA FROM 06N-14N W OF 120W. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8-10 FT FROM 08N-14N W OF 120W. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 140W EARLY MON WITH NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT REACHING THE NW PART OF THE AREA SUN. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY N OF 25N AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 12-15 FT AS THE FRONT SWEEPS INTO FAR NW PORTION MON.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL S FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO NEAR 02N-04N THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 10 FT NEAR 06N81W.

$$ MUNDELL

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