019
AXPZ20 KNHC 020936
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jul 2 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Flossie is centered near 18.6N 108.3W at 02/0900 UTC,
moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 962 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with
gusts to 120 kt. Seas in excess of 12 ft reach as far as 120 nm
in the northern semicircle and 90 nm southern semicircle from
the center of Flossie, with maximum wave heights to 31 ft.
Numerous moderate convection is within 75 nm from the center of
Flossie. Scattered moderate to strong convection is elsewhere
from 09N to 23N between 100W and 115W. Flossie is a category 3
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little
change in strength is forecast this morning, with rapid weakening
expected to begin by the end of the day. Swells generated by
Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico,
and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Flossie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N99W, then continues
west of Hurricane Flossie from 14N112W to 07N135W. The ITCZ
begins near 07N135W and continues beyond 06N140W. Aside from the
convection related to Hurricane Flossie, numerous moderate to
strong convection is observed from 03N to 15N east of 104W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
on Hurricane Flossie.
Elsewhere, a ridge extends over the waters north of 15N and west
of 120W, centered by 1025 mb high pressure centered near
37N135W. This pattern is maintaining moderate to locally fresh
NW winds off Baja California, where combined seas are 4 to 7 ft.
Moderate to fresh SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted across
the Gulf of California, being highest at the entrance of the Gulf
due to the proximity of Flossie. Farther south, light to gentle
breezes prevail off Oaxaca and in Guerrero where combined seas
are 3 to 7 ft primarily in SW swell. The remaining waters off
Mexico from Jalisco to Michoacan are impacted by Flossie as
described in the Special Features paragraph.
For the forecast, Flossie will move to 19.3N 109.4W this
afternoon, 20.2N 110.9W Thu morning, weaken to a tropical storm
near 21.0N 112.3W Thu afternoon, become post-tropical and move to
22.1N 113.9W Fri morning, weaken to a remnant low near 23.0N
115.5W Fri afternoon, and 23.7N 117.3W Sat morning. Flossie will
dissipate early Sun. Elsewhere, expect fresh to strong SE winds
over the Gulf of California today.
Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop
several hundred miles offshore of southwestern Mexico in a few
days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression
could form over the weekend or early next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook
gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation
over the next 48 hours, but a medium chance through 7 days.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A tight pressure gradient over the SW Caribbean supports fresh
to strong NE winds across the Papagayo region and downwind to
near 90W, with associated seas to 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh
SW to W winds are elsewhere in the Central America offshore
waters from Costa Rica to Colombia along with moderate seas in S
swell. Between Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands, winds are
gentle to moderate from the SE to S with 7 to 9 ft seas in S
swell.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will
pulse across the Papagayo region through Thu night due to the
pressure gradient between a ridge to the N and lower pressure
along the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas in southerly swell are expected. Moderate to rough
cross equatorial S to SW swell will affect the waters near the
Galapagos Islands into Thu. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast
across the entire region over the weekend.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The remainder of the eastern Pacific region is under the influence
of a 1025 mb high pressure system centered near 37N135W. Its
associated ridge dominates the waters north of 15N and west of
120W, producing gentle to moderate winds with seas in the 5 to 6
ft range in mixed swell. Farther south, large S to SW swell of 8
to 10 ft covers most of the area between 90W and 120W.
For the forecast, the main issue will be the large southerly
swell persisting south of 10N west of 90W through late in the
week. Fresh to strong SW winds may be active for the next several
days from 10N to 15N between 105W to 120W, generating shorter
period waves that will mix with the longer period SW swell in
that area.
$$
Ramos
