178
AXPZ20 KNHC 240800
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Jul 24 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave has its axis near 98W from 03N to 17N to near
the border of Guerrero and Oaxaca, moving westward at around 10
kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N to 17N between 93W
and 100W, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
A tropical wave has its axis near 122.5W from 03N to 17N, moving
westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10.5N
to 14N between 115W and 124W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to
across portions of Panama to 09.5N87.5W to 09N98W to 07N111W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N111W to 09N119W then from 10N124.5W to
09.5N136W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 04N to 09N between 77W and 85W, from 04N to 08N
between 86W and 94W, from 08N to 10.5N between 123W and 126.5W,
from 10N to 12N between 128W and 132W, and from 08N to 14N
between 136W and 140W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A surface trough is over the Baja California Peninsula and Gulf
of California with a broad and expansive ridge west of Baja
California. This pressure pattern is supporting moderate to fresh
winds west of Baja California per recent ASCAT scatterometer data,
with gentle to moderate wind elsewhere offshore Mexico,
including in the Gulf of California. An exception is in the
immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec where N fresh to strong winds are
present per recent ASCAT scatterometer data and in some deep
convection as described above. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the
offshore waters in mainly S to SW swell, except 3 ft or less in
the Gulf of California north of the entrance. Scattered moderate
convection due to a lower level trough is noted from 20N to 22.5N
between 136W and 140W.
For the forecast, pulsing fresh to locally strong north gap
winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec into this morning
as a diurnal surface trough moves from the Yucatan Peninsula to
Veracruz, Mexico. Winds will then pulse to moderate to fresh
through Sun, except fresh to strong briefly Fri night. More
pronounced fresh to strong winds may return there by early next
week. Moderate to fresh winds west of Baja California are
forecast to increase to fresh to strong this evening, mainly
north of Cabo San Lazaro, as the pressure gradient tightens
through the weekend. These winds should diminish by early next
week. Seas may build to around 8 ft there by the start of the
weekend. Mainly moderate or weaker winds will prevail elsewhere.
Seas will be 4 to 6 ft across the open waters. Seas will be 1 to
3 ft in the Gulf of California through the next several days.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region
with 4 to 6 ft seas. The fetch of these winds reaches the outer
half of the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters, supporting
seas to 6 ft over this area as well. Elsewhere, across the
remainder Central America offshore waters and the waters between
Ecuador and The Galapagos, winds are light to gentle with seas of
4 to 5 ft in SW swell. Heavy showers and tstms are over the
offshore waters of Panama, Colombia and Costa Rica, as well as
near the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador, where locally
higher winds and seas are likely.
For the forecast, fresh northeast to east winds will pulse at
night in the Gulf of Papagayo, locally strong until sunrise today.
Moderate to locally fresh winds associated with these gap winds
will affect the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and
Guatemala through today, then again possibly early next week.
Otherwise, gentle to moderate southerly winds will continue south
of the monsoon trough through the next several days. Seas will
subside somewhat across the waters by the end of the week, then
build back slightly in new S to SW swell this weekend.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure is centered near 29N128W with a ridge extending
from the high center SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. A
tropical wave is south of the ridge near 122.5W, generating
scattered showers and thunderstorms as described above, and
tightening the pressure gradient. A surface trough is embedded in
the ITCZ to the west of the tropical wave nearing 140W wtih
additional showers and thunderstorms nearby. These features
combined with the ridging to the north are supporting moderate to
fresh trades from roughly 10N to 20N to the west of 115W,
locally higher in and near thunderstorms. Seas are 6 to 8 ft,
locally to 9 ft near convection. Gentle to moderate winds are
north of 20N, along with seas of 4 to 6 ft. South of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ, winds are moderate to locally fresh, with seas
of 6 to 7 ft in mixed southerly swell.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades with seas of 7 to 9
ft will linger over the western waters through Sat night as the
surface trough in the western waters and the tropical wave near
122W move westward. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is
forecast to develop well to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands
by this weekend. Thereafter, some gradual development is
possible while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15
kt. No major changes in winds and seas expected elsewhere
through early next week.
$$
Lewitsky
