000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251942
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Jul 25 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1930 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Low pressure well SE of Hawaii (EP97): A tropical wave axis is
along 139W with a low pressure along it near 11N. This low is
producing numerous moderate to scattered strong convection across
a broad area from 06N to 15N W of 130W. Locally strong winds and
higher seas are likely near the more robust convection, but
general fresh winds and rough seas are noted in and near the low
pressure. Some gradual development of this low is possible, and a
tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week as
the system moves generally W at around 10 kt across the far
western portions of the area and into the Central Pacific basin.
There is a medium chance of tropical formation through the next
48 hours and a medium chance of tropical formation through the
next 7 days.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave axis is near 106W from 03N to 17N, moving
westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
05N to 10N between 100W to 107W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N113W to 11N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between
113W and 126W. Scattered moderate convection has also developed
from 04N to 10N E of 84W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A surface trough extends from 32N114W to 26N110W, with a surface
ridge dominating to the west. Fresh to strong N to NW winds and
moderate seas prevail offshore of Baja as a result of the
pressure gradient between these two features. Moderate N to NE
winds prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle or weaker winds
prevail over the rest of the waters. Seas are mainly moderate in
SW swell, with slight seas in the Gulf of California.
For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds will continue
offshore of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro through this
weekend as the pressure gradient builds between troughing over
the Gulf of California and high pressure to the west. Pulsing
fresh to locally strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will
increase to strong to near-gale force Sun night through early
next week as high pressure builds southward through Mexico.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh NE winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo as low
pressure prevails over northwestern Colombia. Elsewhere,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are offshore of Panama, with
gusty winds and building seas likely near convection. Moderate
S to SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Moderate seas
in SW swell are noted through the regional waters.
For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds will continue to pulse in
the Gulf of Papagayo into next week as low pressure prevails in
the south- central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds
will continue south of the monsoon trough through this weekend,
then diminish slightly. Moderate seas in SW swell are expected
across the Central and South American waters into next week.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Refer to the Special Features Section above for information on
low pressure (EP97) that has a potential for tropical formation
in the far western portions of the basin.
Surface ridging extends through much of the waters north of the
monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds are noted north of 23N and
west of 123W. Farther south, moderate to fresh NE winds and
rough seas from 10N to 20N west of 118W. Moderate to fresh SE
winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough. Seas are
generally moderate.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds will prevail
north of the monsoon trough to 25N, expanding farther north
this weekend as high pressure strengthens north of the area.
Rough seas generated by fresh winds will occur from 10N to 15N
west of 125W through this weekend, and additional rough seas may
develop south of the monsoon trough.
$$
Konarik
