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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280259
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0115 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REMAIN IN THE 11-17 FT RANGE UNTIL THU AFTERNOON. NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF SEAS TO 9 FT FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 120W AND FROM 08N TO 19N BETWEEN 114W AND 124W. FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS AREA ARE ALSO HELPING TO KEEP SEAS HIGH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CAUSING THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THU. THE GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AS A RESULT...BUT SHOULD INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE STRENGTH AGAIN OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 10N. NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS EVENING AND INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY EARLY WED MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND PULSE BACK TO GALE FORCE WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THU. NE SWELL FROM PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO MERGE WITH THE SWELL FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 02N78W TO 05N85W TO 04N97W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N97W TO 04N105W TO 09N138W TO 08N140W. THERE WAS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AXIS.


...DISCUSSION... A SLOW MOVING...NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES FROM 32N128W TO 10N120W WITH A 100 KT SOUTHERLY JET ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH PROPELLING UPPER MOISTURE INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH LIES FROM 20N133W TO 16N136W. INFRARED IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES E OF THE TROUGH FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W...WITHIN THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E...WITH THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THU.

GAP WINDS... GULF OF PANAMA...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL SEND A SURGE OF NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE GULF OF PANAMA LATER TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH AS FAR S AS 04N OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 10 FT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE OF THE SE TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BEGINNING WED MORNING. THESE WINDS SHOULD BE MOST WIDESPREAD IN THE MORNING HOURS WHEN THEY ARE ENHANCED BY DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LAND.

$$ SCHAUER

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