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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050236
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAY 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N88W TO 07N100W TO 06N112W TO 05N118W...WHERE IT TERMINATES. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N122W TO 03N130W TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 240 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 109W AND 116W.


...DISCUSSION...

AT UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE AREA S OF 20N AND W OF 86W...WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED ON AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 13N111W...EXTENDING NE TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND EXTREME SW TEXAS NEAR 30N104W. ACTIVE CONVECTION PERSISTING UNDER THE RIDGE THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY IN AREAL COVERAGE...WITH THE ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PERSISTING JUST W AND NW OF THE ANTICYCLONE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NE PORTIONS HAS SHIFTED E-NE INTO THE SOUTH HALF OF CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA...AND IS AIDING IN GENERATING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE U.S. UPSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE WLY FLOW ALOFT. A UPPER JET OF S OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...EXTENDING FROM NEAR 19N140W NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...AND IS STARTING TO FLATTEN TO RIDGE THERE. THE TWO SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE E-NE AND INLAND ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH WED AND WILL COMPLETE A FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS W PORTIONS OF THE AREA...CENTERED ON A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 37N143W...AND EXTENDS SE TO NEAR 20N119W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADEWINDS PREVAIL S AND SE OF THE RIDGE...S OF 22N AND W OF 108W. NE WIND SWELL IN THIS ZONE OF TRADES IS MAINTAINING SEAS 7-10 FT WITH MIXED SW SWELL. ACROSS THE TROPICS E OF 108W WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE...AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS... EXCEPT FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WHERE GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT BRIEFLY TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT.

LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC SWELL HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...WITH SEAS STILL 7 TO 10 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 130W THIS EVENING. PEAK WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND IS NOW MOVING INTO THE WATERS OF SOUTHERN THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY WED...WITH WAVE CONDITIONS WITHIN THE SURFZONE AND ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST BEACHES GRADUALLY IMPROVING DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

$$ STRIPLING

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