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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231607
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jan 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

High pressure building in behind a cold front that exited the
eastern Gulf of Mexico this morning tightened the pressure
gradient in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and currently support gale
force winds. The high will slide quickly eastward this afternoon
while it weakens, which will act to diminish winds below gale
force this afternoon. Please see the latest East Pacific high
seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for
further details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 04N91W to 04N109W to 05N140W. No
significant convection observed.

...DISCUSSION...

...A series of strong cold fronts has generated a large area of
unusually large swell. This swell will continue to affect most
of the forecast area through Wednesday...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong southwest winds are observed in the northern
Gulf of California ahead of a cold front that has started to
enter the Baja California Norte. North to northwest winds of
similar magnitude are also within 20 nm off Santiago in Baja
California Sur. Winds in these two regions of the Gulf of
California will diminish this afternoon, but will pulse again
tonight as the front continue to move SE while weakening. Large
long period NW swell of 12 to 23 ft generated by gale winds
north of the area and behind the front will continue to sweep
southeastward into the forecast zones west of 105W through
Wednesday. NW winds north of 27N will become fresh to strong
this afternoon then subside early Tuesday morning. A strong
pressure gradient between high pressure along Mexico and a
trough of low pressure off the Jalisco Mexico coast is
supporting an area of fresh to strong northwest winds from 18N
to 20N between 105W and 107W. These winds will diminish early
this afternoon and only long period swell will dominate the 023
offshore zone. Strong winds sustaining the swell event will
diminish by Tuesday as the high weakens, with seas decreasing
below 12 ft in the offshore Mexico waters Wednesday night.
However, seas of 8 to 10 ft will persist west of 96W through the
end of the week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds will prevail across most of the region
through Tuesday. Seas will generally range between 3 and 5 ft
until Tuesday, then build about a foot in response to arriving
NW swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extending from 31N116W to 22N126W to 18N140W and
strong high pressure behind it support fresh to near gale force
winds N of 27N between 120W and 138W with seas from 14 to 23 ft
generated in part to large NW swell. Large NW swell continues to
spread across the remainder waters with seas to 18 ft north of
27N, 12 ft N of 10N and 8 ft seas reaching the equator this
afternoon.

$$
Ramos

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