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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201549
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1324 UTC Mon Feb 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...High pressure will build over
eastern Mexico behind low pressure moving east across the
western Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Tuesday night, helping
to produce the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. This
event will be brief as winds peak near minimal gale force Tuesday
night through early Wednesday morning. Winds will diminish below
gale force Wednesday morning, and fall below advisory criteria
Wednesday evening as the high pressure ridge shifts quickly
eastward across the Gulf of Mexico.

Refer to High Seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/
FZPN03 KNHC for additional details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 09N121W to 05N130W to 04N137W to beyond
02N140W. No significant convection is noted at this time.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force
gap wind event.

High pressure of 1023 mb centered near 27N121W ridges SE to near
the Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over
the offshore waters along the coast of Baja California. Light to
gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Large NW swell continue to push
SE along the entire length of the Baja Peninsula and the Mexican
coast as far SE as Manzanillo. As the swell head SE they continue
to subside. Seas of 10-12 ft are affecting the offshore waters
of Baja California Sur. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range in the
remaining zones from Manzanillo northwestward. Seas of 4-6 ft
are found over the remainder of the offshore Pacific waters.
Seas are generally 1-2 ft in the Gulf of California. Seas will
continue to subside off the coast of the Baja California, falling
below 8 ft by early Tuesday morning. A cold front will weaken and
dissipate W of Baja but a fresh round of NW swell associated with
the front will propagate into the area and cause seas to rebuild
above 8 ft off the coast of Baja California Norte Tuesday
afternoon. In the wake of the front a high pressure ridge will
strengthen W of the Baja California peninsula during the second
half of this week. This will strengthen the winds along the
Baja coast during this time frame.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Winds will pulse from moderate to locally
fresh during the overnight hours through Tuesday night. Winds
will then diminish by midweek.

Gulf of Panama: North winds will pulse from moderate to fresh
tonight.

Otherwise, winds will be in light to gentle range.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1023 mb high remains centered over the northern waters near
27N121W. A cold front is moving through the NW waters and extends
from 30N132W to 24N140W. Winds have increased over this area.
Fresh to strong winds are present N of 28N up to 90 nm SE of the
front. Strong to near gale winds are occurring N of 26N and west
of the front. NW swells associated with the front continue to
propagate SE across the forecast waters. The cold front has
ushered in a fresh set of NW swell into the area. Seas will peak
near 20 ft today over the far NW waters before they start to
subside. The front will continue to shift eastward while
weakening, and is expected to eventually dissipate late Tuesday.
Winds associated to the front will diminish as the front
weakens, and are expected to diminish below advisory criteria by
late tonight. NW swell will continue to propagate SE. This area
of seas that are 8 ft or greater will merge with the area
currently SW of Baja by Tuesday evening. Seas 8 ft or greater
will cover the forecast waters north of a line from 24N115W to
08N119W to 07N140W by Tuesday evening. Areal coverage of 8 ft
seas will then decrease as the week progresses, with only a
residual area of 8 ft seas remaining over the waters N of 20N and
W of 135W by Friday evening.

$$
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