Home


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280920
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun May 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave north of 07N along 94W is moving westward at 10 kt with minimal associated convection. Another tropical wave from 06N to 16N along 100W is moving westward at 10-15 kt with associated convection within 45 nm east of the axis. These waves are forecast to move slowly westward during the next 36-48 hours and become embedded within a larger area of broad low pressure south of Mexico Monday through Tuesday.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon tough extends from low pressure in northern Colombia centered near 08N74W to 11N104W to 09N119W. The ITCZ continues from 09N119W to 06N140W. Clusters of scattered moderate to strong convection are along the coast of Central America centered near 08N84W and 12N90W. Minimal convection is noted elsewhere along the convergence boundary.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate northwest winds associated with high pressure centered west of the area near 30N135W and lower pressure over NW Mexico will continue west of Baja California through early Wednesday, with seas generally 5 to 6 ft. Light variable winds and 1-2 ft seas are expected across the Gulf of California through Thursday. Further south, light to gentle winds will prevail through Wednesday. Winds east of a pair of tropical waves that will move slowly south of the Tehuantepec area will be moderate to fresh east to southeasterly. A broad area of low pressure may develop southwest of southeastern Mexico and Gulf of Tehuantepec region during the middle portion of next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The Monsoon Trough will continue to intersect the region from west to east the next several days, supporting convection mainly north of 03N. Mainly light to gentle winds will prevail north of the trough axis with 4 to 6 ft seas. South of the trough axis, moderate to locally fresh south to southwest winds are expected with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak high will meander over northwest waters near 30N135W the next 3 days then shift westward into the Central Pacific. Gentle to moderate winds are expected over northern waters with 5-7 ft seas. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will prevail in southern waters north of the ITCZ, with 6-7 ft seas increasing slightly to 7-8 ft Tuesday as northeast trades strengthen to 20 kt from 07N to 15N west of 130W. Seas are expected to linger up to 8 ft west of 130W Wednesday through Thursday night.

$$ Mundell

Home