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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281525
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1105 UTC WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION EVENT OF N TO NE 30-45 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE GALE WINDS HAVE RAISED THE SEAS IN THE GULF TO THE RANGE OF 11-17 FT. NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF SEAS TO 9 FT FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 91W AND 105W...ALSO FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W AND FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 110W AND 124W. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A TIGHT PRES RIDGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THU. THE GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO AROUND 14 FT AND TO 12 FT THU NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW FOR NE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH 30-35 KT GALE FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU THEN DIMINISH TO BELOW THU NIGHT. HOWEVER NE WINDS WILL BE 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT THROUGH FRI.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ FROM 5N90W TO 4N105W TO 8N125W TO 8N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.


...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA EXTENDS FROM 32N125W TO 13N122W. A 95-125 KT JETSTREAM ON THE W SIDE OF THE TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N138W TO 18N128W. A 95 KT JET IS ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 24N120W TO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION E OF THE TROUGH FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 117W-124W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE TROUGH WITH AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO N OF 15N.

THE LARGE SWELL THAT HAD BEEN ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA HAVE SUBSIDED TO LESS THE 8 FT.

NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8FT CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT THU. ON FRI WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$ DGS

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