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AXPZ20 KNHC 142147
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN FEB 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ FORMS NEAR 03N89W AND EXTENDS W TO 04N110W...THEN TURNS NW TO 07N125W...THEN SW TO BEYOND 00N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 03N90W TO 03N102W. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 05N124W TO 16N124W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER AND ALONG THE ITCZ...AND THE TROUGH...WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08.5N116W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE W PORTION OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 03N139W TO 02N140W.


...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...THE NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20- 30 KT AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO 8-11 FT ACROSS AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AT SUNRISE ON MON. EXPECT ANOTHER NORTHERLY SURGE AT 20-25 KT ON MON NIGHT WITH THE N FLOW INCREASING TO MINIMAL GALE STRENGTH BY SUNSET ON TUE...AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNRISE ON FRI. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 24N120W TO 15N98W. MODERATE TO NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 110- 120W THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH LIGHT N WINDS EXPECTED ON MON NIGHT INTO TUE. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE NEAR 21N110W ON TUE EVENING SURROUNDED BY LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH WED. A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 24N ON WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. COMBINED SEAS OF 7-11 FT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PAC WATERS BETWEEN 107-120W WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE FROM THE N ON MON WITH 4- 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED BY TUE...3-5 FT SEAS ON WED THEN BUILDING 4-7 FT ON THU BEHIND THE TROUGH...WITH 6-8 FT SEAS PROPAGATING E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 22N ON FRI. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 97-108W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF 97W. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO STRONG N OF 30N BRIEFLY ON MON. THE NW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WATERS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...FRESH NE-E WINDS DOMINATE THE AREA W OF 93W AND ALSO DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. ANOTHER NE 20-25 SURGE FORECAST TONIGHT WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 12N86W TO 08N92W. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA W OF 95W ON MON NIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 6-9 FT IN SUBSIDING SWELL. STRONG NE SURGES EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EACH NIGHT WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING NEAR GALE CONDITIONS ON THU AND FRI NIGHTS. ANOTHER GALE WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON TUE EVENING WITH STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA N OF 13N BETWEEN 94-97W BY WED...WITH THE TONGUE OF STRONG WINDS SPREADING S TO NEAR 10N100W ON THU. SEAS FROM BOTH GAP EVENTS WILL MERGE AGAIN WITH 7-11 FT SEAS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 93W LATE IN THE WEEK. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG ABOUT 04N TONIGHT... THEN BEGIN AGAIN ON THU NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 9 FT NEAR 06N81W.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH HAS A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION CURRENTLY FROM 24N137W TO 14N136W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 420 NM E OF TROUGH. ANOTHER LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 05N124W TO 16N124W. THE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED WITH WINDS WITH WINDS CURRENTLY NEAR GALE FORCE AT 25-30 KT WITHIN 240 NM NW OF LINE FROM 07N132W TO 12N128W WITH SEAS OF 13-18 FT. THE GRADIENT SUPPORTS STRONG NE-E WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF 07N W OF 126W. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX LATE TONIGHT AND MON...WITH MOSTLY MODERATE NE-E WINDS EXPECTED...EXCEPT STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE JUST W OF THE DISSIPATING TROUGH THROUGH TUE MORNING. MIXING SWELL RESULTING IN 8 TO 11 FT COMBINED SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE EARLY THIS WEEK. EXPECT A W TO E ORIENTATED RIDGE FROM 25N140W TO 25N120W ON TUE NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE RIDGE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NW FLOW N OF 30N W OF THE FRONT LATE TUE NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW SWELL IN THE FORM OF 8-14 FT SEAS WILL PROPAGATE E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 22N ON WED-FRI.

$$ NELSON

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