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AXPZ20 KNHC 070915
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAY 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 5N87W TO 7N105W TO 1009 MB LOW NEAR 4N120W TO TROUGH 9N132W TO 3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 111W-117W AND FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 131W-135W.


...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N127W TO 27N137W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SE OF THE TROUGH AND DOMINATES MUCH OF DISCUSSION AREA WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 11N111W. A 95 KT JETSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 24N120W ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 20N W OF 115W.

THE HIGH PRES NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA HAS BECOME STRONGER AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED...LEADING TO NE WINDS 20-25 KT FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 124W-138W WITH SEAS 8-10 FT. THE NE WINDS 20-25 KT WILL BE FROM 11N-15N W OF 130W FRI NIGHT. AN AREA OF NW SWELL TO 8 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 119W-124W...WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT FRI NIGHT.

$$ DGS

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