Home


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282203
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE JIMENA IS CENTERED NEAR 12.3N 123.1W AT 28/2100 UTC MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS JIMENA AS A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING HURRICANE WITH A VERY DISTINCT EYE FEATURE OF ABOUT 16 NM NOTED. IN ADDITION VERY WELL PRONOUNCED BANDING FEATURES ARE WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND THE EYE. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE EYE. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM N AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLES. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1816 UTC THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTED A RATHER EXTENSIVE AREA OF 20-33 KT WIND FIELD SURROUNDING THE CYCLONE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 180 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT JIMENA WILL BLOSSOM INTO A LARGE AND INTENSE HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE 12 FT SEA RADII WILL EXPAND AS JIMENA APPROACHES 130W-135W. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N89W TO 11N99W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N103W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 96W-100W...AND ALSO WITHIN 180 NM N AND 60 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 100W-103W.


...DISCUSSION...

HURRICANE IGNACIO W OF THE AREA NEAR 14.6N 144.5W AT 2100 UTC CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED STRONG WINDS THAT EARLIER IMPACTED A PORTION OF THE FAR WESTERN WATERS NOW HAVE SHIFTED TO THE W OF 140W. HOWEVER...LINGERING 8-9 FT SEAS ARE WITHIN THE AREA FROM 11N-17N W OF TO 18N W OF 138W. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE TONIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS NEAR 28N129W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N113W. A WEAK TROUGH IS TO THE W OF THE HIGH FROM NEAR 30N133W TO 26N136W. WEAKENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 15 NM OF LINE FROM 32N129W TO 28N132W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A BROAD TROUGH IS ADVANCING EASTWARD JUST N OF THE NW PORTION. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM 32N135W TO 30N141W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE N CENTRAL WATERS BY LATE SAT WHILE WEAKENING. AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE HAS TRIGGERED SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 30 NM OF 24N135W. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING TO THE NE WHILE WEAKENING. BEYOND 48 HOURS...BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SW OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...AND IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION WITH SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR IT TO INTENSIFY.

OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF HURRICANE JIMENA A LARGE AREA OF GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL BETWEEN 17N-32N. GENTLE TO MODERATE SLY WINDS ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA S OF ABOUT 05N...EXCEPT E OF 105W WHERE PATCHES OF MODERATE TO FRESH SLY WINDS ARE PRESENT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 20 TO 25 KT DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 9 FT BY THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$ AGUIRRE

Home