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AXPZ20 KNHC 251547
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUL 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.

TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE CENTERED NEAR 12.3N 135.5W AT 25/1500 MOVING WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/ WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRES HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13.5N123.5W OR A LITTLE MORE THAN THOUSAND MILES SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRES AREA A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE W OR W-NW AT ABOUT 10 KT.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 112W FROM 10N TO 18N...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N90W TO 07N100W TO 10N112W TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 13.5N123.5W 12N132W. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W.


...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N W OF 125W. THE MEAN AXIS EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 31N131W TO 18N136W. A BAND OF VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS NEAR THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO IMPACT GENEVIEVE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHEAR AND WEAKENING. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 125W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH MAINLY W OF 120W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CONUS NEAR 36N103W WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE ANTICYCLONE INTO THE E PACIFIC ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 27N118W. AN UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 21N110W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 17N114W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION E OF 110W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ALSO SUPPORTING CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 11N103W. N TO NE FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REGION E OF 95W.

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1008 MB LOW PRES AREA LOCATED NEAR 11N103W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES W-NW AT 10-15 KT. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRES AREA A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND A MEDIUM CHANGE THROUGH 5 DAYS. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN 90-120 NM NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER WITH SEAS TO 8-9 FT IS EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PULSE OF 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT DURING EACH PULSE.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ANOTHER PULSE OF NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT IS EXPECTED TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. SEAS SHOULD MAXIMIZE AT AROUND 8 FT WITH THIS PULSE. AN ASCAT PASS SHOWED NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THIS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND GENEVIEVE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF 20-25 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 16N TO 20N W OF 132W WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO MERGE WITH GENEVIEVE IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS.

$$ GR

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