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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262202
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JAN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHERE WINDS ARE PRESENTLY 35-40 KT AS REINFORCING HIGH PRES ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR TO SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 10-16 FT IN THE GULF AS THESE WIND CONDITIONS PERSIST. SEAS WILL ONLY SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TUE AND WED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS. THIS GALE WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE OF LONG DURATION...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING WITH WINDS OF 20-30 KT EXTENDING SW AND DOWNWIND TO 90W-91W. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS AROUND 11 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 03N82W TO 05N90W TO 05N95W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N95W TO 06N110W TO 07N128W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR 02N85W.


...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA W OF 100W. A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW HAS MOVED JUST N OF AREA AND NOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N125W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO ESE TOWARD NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. TO THE W OF THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH...A NARROW RIDGE IS ALONG 130W N OF 21N...AND IS SLIDING EASTWARD. A RATHER NARROW LONGWAVE WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG 136W AND N 13N. OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT E OF ABOUT 100W WITH A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD TO SE MEXICO...AND TO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA AND EXTENDS FROM 30N136W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 27N138W TO 23N140W. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS W OF THE LOW AND FRONT. EAST OF THE FRONT...A VERY WEAK PRES GRADIENT PREVAILS AS HIGH PRES THAT WAS LOCATED N OF AREA DISSIPATES. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N115W TO 20N116W. A SMALL AREA OF E TO SE WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE IS NOTED FROM 24N TO 26N E OF TROUGH TO 113W WITH SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ON TUE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON TUE AND DISSIPATE BY WED.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS PROPAGATING SEWD TO THE W OF A LINE FROM FROM 30N120W TO 15N130W TO 05N140W. THESE SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN MAX COMBINED SEAS OF UP TO 11 FT WITH PERIODS OF 16- 17 SECONDS.

GAP WINDS... FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS SEEPING THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA REACH S TO NEAR 05N AND BETWEEN 79W-81W. THESE WINDS WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WED WITH SEAS THERE TO 8 OR 9 FT.

$$ GR

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