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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061530
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAY 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N102W TO 10N120W THEN RESUMES AT 08N125W TO BEYOND 04N140W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 06N E OF 78W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS SUPPORTING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 103W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 108W AND 112W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 122W AND 125W. SIMILAR CONVECTION CAN ALSO BE FOUND FROM 08.5N TO 10N BETWEEN 126W AND 127W. E OF 102W...THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NO IDENTIFIABLE BASED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA THAT INDICATED VERY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.


...DISCUSSION...

MAINLY ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS N OF 20N. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 11N111W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD TO NEAR 11N90W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 90 KT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 21N140W AND CUTS THROUGH 25N120W INTO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO.

A 1031 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 36N141W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 20N110W. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 11N TO 17N W OF 118W. THE AREA OF TRADES WILL SHRINK WESTWARD...W OF 130W...ON THU AS HIGH PRES SLIGHTLY WEAKENS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 11 FT IN MIXED NE WIND WAVES AND NW SWELL.

THE BIG SWELL EVENT THAT WAS AFFECTING MAINLY THE EASTERN WATERS CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE. ANOTHER TRAIN OF LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS...18-20 SECONDS...IS NOW CROSSING THE EQUATOR AND WILL REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO...MAINLY S OF CABO CORRIENTES AND CENTRAL AMERICA BY EARLY FRI BRINGING ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS TO THOSE COASTS.

$$ GR

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