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AXPZ20 KNHC 312130
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAR 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM FROM 06N120W TO 07N127W TO 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

DURING MARCH AND APRIL...A MONSOON CIRCULATION OVER THE TROPICAL NE PACIFIC IS NOT PRESENT...AND OCCASIONALLY BREAKS DOWN WITH CONVERGENCE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE EQUATOR IN WHAT IS REFERRED TO AS A DOUBLE ITCZ STRUCTURE. A SECOND ITCZ IS SEEN S OF THE EQUATOR. THE PRESENCE OF AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN ITCZ IS FORECAST TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.


...DISCUSSION...

STRONG RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1035 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N138W DOMINATES THE REGION. THE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO AROUND 16N W OF 112W. THE STRONG HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT W OF SOCAL TO INDUCE GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. EXPECT WINDS TO REACH 20-25 KT N OF 28-29N DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS...BUT MOST SIGNIFICANT MARINE FACTOR WILL BE N-NW SWELL REACHING 12-14 FT IN NE WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. EXPECT PEAK SEAS WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING.

NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FRESH NE-E WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF 120W BY WED NIGHT. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELL WILL SWEEP INTO THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TO MIX WITH WIND WAVES AND BUILD SEAS TO 9-11 FT N OF 20N W OF 120W BY WED AFTERNOON.

MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION E OF 110W EXCEPT FOR GAP WINDS TO 20 KT DOWNWIND FROM PAPAGAYO. LONG PERIOD S SWELL CONTINUES TO FADE WITH SEAS 5-6 FT. ANOTHER BATCH OF CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH WATERS TODAY AND COULD REACH THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO BY LATE THU.

PULSING OF NOCTURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WED MORNING...REACHING 20-25 KT BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC...WITH COMBINED SEAS REACHING 6-7 FT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER BRIEF GAP WIND EVENT WITH WINDS TO 25- 30 KT IS POSSIBLE IN TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO THIS WEEKEND.

$$ MUNDELL

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