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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310910
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON AUG 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE JIMENA CENTERED NEAR 15.3N 133.9W AT 0300 UTC...MOVING WNW 285 DEG AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 936 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT JIMENA HAS A WELL DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N AND 90 NM S OF THE EYE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST IN CONVECTIVE BANDS WITHIN 270 NM NE AND 180 NM SW OF THE CENTER. IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE W-NW S OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHILE IN FORECAST WATERS THROUGH 48 HOURS. JIMENA HAS A LARGE AREA OF STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WITHIN 390 NM N AND 270 NM S OF THE CENTER...WITH MAX SEAS TO 48 FT. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W OF 140W TUE NIGHT. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC AND HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEPI/FZPN02 KWBC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

A 1008 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N109W IS SHOWING SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. ENHANCED SW MONSOONAL FLOW TO 25 KT WITHIN THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW IS SUPPORTING SEAS TO 8 FT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE N-NW THROUGH TUE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS JIMENA MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM IT.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N85W TO 12N89W TO 10N95W TO 12N103W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N109W TO 10N123W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 112W AND 121W.


...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS FROM 32N136W TO 17N104W. THE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING 15-20 KT TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 15N WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-7 FT IN MIXED NW AND CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUE BUT THE AREA OF HIGHER SEAS GENERATED BY JIMENA WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AS IT CROSSED 140W AND MOVES W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WED. THE GRADIENT E OF THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING NW 15-20 KT WINDS E OF 122W TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN NE WATERS BETWEEN 118W-122W. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4-7 FT BY TUE EVENING. SW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 105W-120W IN ABOUT 36 HOURS ON TUE THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN WATERS.

$$ MUNDELL

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