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AXPZ20 KNHC 011546
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAY 01 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N85W TO 08N100W TO 06N109W TO 07N120W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 06N124W TO 11N123W. THE ITCZ AXIS REACHES FROM 05N127W TO 03N135W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N81W TO 09N100W TO 07N120W. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W.


...DISCUSSION...

A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED BETWEEN CALIFORNIA AND HAWAII NEAR 32N139W. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REACHES NORTHWESTWARD FROM ARIZONA ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO FILL. LATEST ASCAT IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG NW WINDS FROM 30N TO 34N W OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST HAVE DECREASED TO FRESH IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAVE ALREADY DIMINISHED TO BELOW 20 KT AS WELL. SEAS W OF THE CALIFORNIA AND BAJA COASTS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO BELOW 8 FT BY AROUND SUNRISE ON MON MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA AROUND NOON ON MON...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN. NW SWELL OF 8 TO 10 FT GENERATED TO THE LEE OF THE FRONT WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA AND BAJA COASTS ON TUE AND WED BUT DECAY ON THU.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ HAS DECREASED AS A COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD FROM N OF HAWAII WEAKENS THE RIDGE. LATEST ASCAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA OF FRESH WINDS FROM 05N TO 20N W OF 120W CONTINUES TO SHRINK. THIS HAS ALLOWED TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL IN THIS AREA TO SUBSIDE. AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N REBUILDS...WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT ARE NOT EXPECTED.

LONG TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRIGGER A NEAR GALE FORCE TEHUANTEPEC SURGE ON THURSDAY.

$$ MCELROY

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