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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100334
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON FEB 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 19 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE THU MORNING...THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ON THU AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN INCREASING THE FLOW TO STRONG GALE FORCE ON FRI THROUGH EARLY SUN. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE NE SWELL THAT WILL PROPAGATE S MERGING WITH ENE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 04-10N BETWEEN 90-105W ON WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 93-110W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED MORNING THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...THEN DEVELOP AGAIN WED NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR FLOW EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 07N94W...RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 15 FT NEAR 09N89W. PATCHES OF STRONG NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON WED NIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 12N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ONLY 8 FT IN THE LIMITED FETCH. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ FORMS NEAR 07N85W AND CONTINUES SW TO 03N97W...THEN TURNS NW TO 06N110W...SW TO 01N125W...THEN W TO BEYOND 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N85W TO 05N104W TO 07N110W TO 07N126W.


...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 24N120W TO 21N107W. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING N-NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 107- 120W...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT WINDS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 10-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 20N W OF 112W ON WED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 97-107W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED GALE EVENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF 97W. FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 24N ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH WED MORNING...THEN MODERATE NW FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF ON WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 04N W OF 86W. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 9 FT NEAR 06N81W.

ELSEWHERE FROM 00-32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 06-12N W OF 125W THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE WINDS WAVE AND LONG PERIOD S AND N SWELL. NW LONG PERIOD SWELL...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 110W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH WED...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN THU AS ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW SWELL PROPAGATES SE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT REACHING NEAR 32N136W TO 26N140W LATE THU. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY STRONG SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 29-32N W OF 138W BRIEFLY ON WED NIGHT.

$$ NELSON

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