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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271531
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAY 27 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N77W to 11N107W to 06N129W. ITCZ axis extends from 06N129W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N to 10N east of 89W, and from 05N to 14N between 91W and 99W.


...DISCUSSION...

High pressure north of the area centered near 38N138W extends a ridge axis southeastward to 18N112W. This subtropical ridge in conjunction with the convergence zone south of 11N influences most of the area W of 110W. Latest scatterometer data indicates fresh N to NE winds north of the ITCZ to 22N generally W of 117W.

Global models are suggesting a broad, fairly weak area of low pressure across the central waters in the vicinity of 10N120W. By Sat afternoon further development is indicated, which may result in a low centered near 11N122W. A tight pressure gradient within the NW quadrant of the low will allow NE winds to reach fresh to strong conditions with seas building to 9 ft by early Sun morning.

Elsewhere, near gale force N-NW winds along the California coast are expected to produce an area of N swell that will extend south of 32N tonight and affect the north-central waters N of 28N between 122W and 129W through Sat night. Otherwise, benign marine conditions are expected to prevail across the remainder of the forecast area through Sun.

$$ Mundell

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