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AXPZ20 KNHC 031525
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUL 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N137W MOVING NW AT 5 KT. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG TRADES TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER GENERATING SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT FROM 12N TO 17N W OF 128W. THE LOW IS LOCATED BENEATH A GENERALLY FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 15N130W TO BEYOND 13N140W. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GRADUAL AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT TREND DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N TO 20N88W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N TO 15N106W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED TROUGHING AND AN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM BETWEEN 104W AND 109W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 103W AND 108W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N117W TO 13N117W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 23N120W. CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION BELOW.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N90W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N90W TO 08N101W TO 06N117W TO 05N125W TO 08N1310W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 93W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 103W AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 112W AND 124W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 114W AND 121W.


...DISCUSSION... A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N125W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 19N110W. A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N137W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 14N W OF 136W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS PRODUCING FRESH WINDS N AND NE OF THE LOW CENTER. THE FRESH WINDS ARE HELPING TO GENERATE SEAS TO 8 FT ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 129W AND 132W.

A KELVIN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS HELPED INCREASE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAKING MUCH OF THE ITCZ REGION ACTIVE BETWEEN 93W AND 125W AS NOTED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE. LATEST FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN ITCZ BREAKDOWN EVENT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN WATERS DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS RESULTING FROM THE BREAKDOWN EVENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...CONDITIONS BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR CYCLOGENESIS AFTERWARDS.

GAP WINDS... A TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW IS GENERATING RESIDUAL FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW N OF 15N BETWEEN 94.5N AND 95.5N FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE EXTENSION OF THE CARIBBEAN LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO THE EAST PACIFIC REGION WITH STRONG GAP WIND FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PEAKING DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A MINIMUM IN WIND SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. PULSES OF NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS FAR WEST AS 95W BEFORE DECAYING BELOW 8 FT.

$$ HUFFMAN

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