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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060342
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI FEB 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT...PEAKING AROUND 45 KT...AND ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FURTHER TO A MAX OF 40 KT ON SAT MORNING. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO STORM FORCE AGAIN LATE SAT...AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY SAT NIGHT. A STRONG GALE AT SUNRISE SUN SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT SUN TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE AT SUNRISE ON MON. GLOBAL MODELS THEN SUGGESTS STORM CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN MON NIGHT. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE N TO NE SWELL OF 8 FT AND GREATER EXTENDINGBEYOND 800 NM TO THE S AND SW OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG ENE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SPILL THROUGH GAPS AND BAYS NEAR THE PACIFIC COASTS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS IS PRODUCING A LARGE PLUME OF STRONG ENE WINDS OF 20-30 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 06N935W...WHERE SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 8-10 FT. A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY SE OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL EXPAND THE AREAL COVERAGE OF 25-30 KT WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO EXPAND N TO THE GULF OF FONSECA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FURTHER ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS PROLONGED GAP WIND EVENT IS IMPACTING THE ENTIRE REGION FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHERN MEXICO...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS EXTENDING DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO MERGE TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NORTHERLY WINDS EXTENDING DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A VERY LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT ANDGREATER WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND...AND ENCOMPASS THE AREA FROM 01N TO 14N BETWEEN 90W AND 112W BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N88W TO 05N119W TO BEYOND 03.5N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF N AND 60 NM S OF ITCZ W OF 106W.


...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH SE THROUGH 23N120W TO 21N112W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING N-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 120W...AND 20 TO 30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE FULL LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS REMAIN EXTREMELY ROUGH THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND ARE STILL RUNNING 8-11 FT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THUS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCING THESE STRONG WINDS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH. THE CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO 20-25 KT MIDDAY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS COULD STILL BE SEEN TONIGHT IN THE LEE OF THE TIBURON BASIN. NW SWELL CONTINUESTOMOVE THROUGH THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PRODUCING SEAS 8-11 FT E OF 120W. THIS SWELL WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE FROM THE N ON SAT WITH 5-6 FT SEAS EXPECTED BY SUN NIGHT.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 05N W OF 106W. PULSES FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 10 FT NEAR 06N81W.

ELSEWHERE E OF 140W...STRONG NE TRADES CONTINUE TONIGHT S OF THESURFACE RIDGE...GENERALLY FROM 06N TO 16N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W. THIS AREA OF STRONG TRADES WILL GRADUALLY SHRINK TO 06-15N W OF 118W BY EARLY MON...WITH SEAS OF 10-13 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE WINDS WAVE AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. LARGE NW LONG PERIOD SWELL...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE W OF 106W. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH MON...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHING NEAR 30N140W ON WED EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY STRONG SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 29-32N W OF 138W ON TUE NIGHT.

$$ STRIPLING

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