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AXPZ20 KNHC 042137
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAY 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WILL START TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REACH NEAR GALE FORCE BY THU MORNING. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY LATE THU NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO EARLY FRI MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE FRI AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 13 FT WITH THIS GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT.

CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...THE FINAL GALE FORCE WIND EVENT OCCURS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN LATE MARCH OR EARLY APRIL. SINCE RECORDS WERE KEPT IN 1999...ONLY THREE GALE FORCE WIND EVENTS...WINDS IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE...HAVE OCCURRED IN THE MONTH OF MAY. THESE EVENTS COINCIDED WITH EL NINO CONDITIONS DURING THE PREVIOUS WINTER TIME.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N90W TO LOW PRES NEAR 07.5N101W TO 07.5N105W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07.5N105W TO 07N122W TO 05N131W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 99W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 127W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 127W AND 133W.


...DISCUSSION...

LOW PRESSURE OF 1015 MB CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 30.5N125W EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N125W AND EXTENDS TO 24N128W TO 21N140W. THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS W OF THE FRONT...N OF 29N BETWEEN 130W AND 133W. SEAS IN THIS AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE REACHING 11 FT. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THU AFTERNOON. NW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE...HOWEVER SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL STILL COVER THE WATERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 121W AND 132W FRI AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 120W. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE INTO THE ITCZ FROM THE INCREASED WINDS IS HELPING FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AS MENTIONED ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...S-SW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY THU MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS.

$$ AL

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