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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302205
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 30 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical axis is along 92W/93W from 07N to 12N moving westward at 13 kt. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection have flared up within 240 nm east of the wave axis. from 07N to 13N between 87W and 91W. Low pressure may form along the wave as it moves to near 95W/96W late on Tuesday. r during the next 48 hours as the wave becomes more diffuse.

A tropical wave is just inland southern Panama and northwest Colombia near 78W south of 13N moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave is helping to produce widely scattered thunderstorms over much of Panama and southern Costa Rica. Isolated thunderstorms are noted over portions of northwest Colombia. The wave is forecast to out across the eastern Pacific waters tonight.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N86W to 10N97W to low pressure near 09N105W 1012 mb to 12N114W to low pressure near 13N119W 1011 mb to 10N124W, then transitions to ITCZ axis from 10N124W to 09N130W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 07N to 11N between 108W and 113W.


...DISCUSSION...

The subtropical ridge prevails over northern waters N of 17N and west of 115W. Cold front NW of the area from 36N144W to 27N148W is being blocked by high pressure north of the area, and is expected to become stationary west of 140W during the next 36-48 hours. A persistent low pressure area near 14N120W is nearly stationary, and scatterometer data showed 20 kt winds near the circulation center. The low is expected to weaken and transition to a trough during the next 24-48 hours. Convection associated with the low has been spotty and unorganized during the past 24 hours. Scatterometer data from last night indicates gentle trade winds over most of the area north of the convergence zone, and mainly light southerly winds to the south. Model guidance shows multiple weak transitory cyclonic circulations embedded in the monsoon trough the next few days, with little possible tropical development expected until late this week - based on the ECMWF.

$$ Aguirre

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