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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280230
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1006 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 10N108W CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. DEEP CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER AND LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN AROUND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED FAR TO THE NW OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 108W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 104W-111W. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER THIS EVENING OR ON THU. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRES AREA A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES W-NW AT AROUND 10-15 KT.


...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N-14N ALONG 97W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND NOW A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 08N97W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS. ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BY THE WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE W-NW.

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 08N121W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM W QUADRANT OF LOW CENTER. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 120W-124W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI.

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 11N132W. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY WELL DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM FORECAST TO DRIFT W-SW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LIKELY CROSSING 140W FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE RIDGE TO THE N SUPPORTS AN AREA OF NE 20-25 KT TRADES MAINLY FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 130W-135W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-9 FT. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF THESE WINDS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ IN THE EASTERN PAC DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THREE LOW PRES SYSTEMS AND A TROPICAL WAVE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF EACH OTHER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 108W AND 125W...AND FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 120W AND 126W.


...DISCUSSION...

BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 30N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH WATERS TO NEAR 21N112W. A FRONTAL THROUGH STRETCHES FROM 30N137W TO 27N138W TO BEYOND 25N140W. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THU NIGHT...WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR 28N132W.

GAP WINDS...MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING TO 8 FT.

FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH FRI MORNING.

$$ GR

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