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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150307
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON SEP 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0100 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE ODILE NEAR 22.6N 109.6W 930 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP 15 MOVING NNW OR 340 DEG AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT GUSTS 135 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 270 NM S SEMICIRCLE. ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF AROUND 18 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. THE CENTER OF ODILE WILL MOVE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN A FEW HOURS...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH TUESDAY. SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE AFFECTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE RECENTLY DOWN GRADED REMNANTS OF SIXTEEN-E WERE NEAR 16.3N 112.3W 1005 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP 15 MOVING ENE OR 060 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM W QUADRANT. SEAS FROM 12 TO 15 FT LIE WITHIN 240 NM SE QUADRANT AND 45 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SW SWELL. THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL THEY BECOME FULLY ABSORBED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE ODILE. SEE THE FINAL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE S OF THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FONSECA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THERE IS MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP FROM THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM A 1007 MB LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 10N90W THROUGH WESTERN EL SALVADOR TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IT HAS BEEN MOVING W-NW AROUND 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE WAVE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE COAST FROM 10N TO 15N AND INLAND WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N80W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N90W 1007 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N98W 1007 MB TO 13N103W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 14N116W TO 11N124W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N136W 1008 MB TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 99W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM W QUADRANT OF LOW PRES NEAR 10N136W.


...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1018 MB HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 52N135W TO THE 1015 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER NEAR 24N138W TO 20N115W....BOOKENDED N OF THE AREA BY LOW PRES OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND A DEEP LAYERED LOW AROUND 1000 NM NE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER W WATERS. THE DEEP LAYER LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT TO ITS S BETWEEN IT AND THE WEAK SUBTROPICAL HIGH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO A FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY BREEZE OVER NW WATERS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE DEEP LAYER LOW MON...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW WATERS EARLY TUE.

THE LEADING EDGE OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN EXCESS OF 20 SECONDS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT. SEAS OVER 8 FT ARE BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH THE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS GENERATED BY ODILE...YIELDING HIGH AND CONFUSED SEAS.

GAP WINDS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY REACH A STRONG BREEZE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC UNDER A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGHER PRES OVER THE FAR SW GULF OF MEXICO AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES TO THE S ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH.

$$ SCHAUER

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