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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071556
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN FEB 7 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS CONTINUES TO GENERATE A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF STORM FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH STRONG GALE NORTHERLY 35-45 KT WINDS GENERALLY N OF 13N BETWEEN 94W-97W. EXPECT STRONG RIDGING TO PERSIST WITH MAX WINDS DURING EARLY MORNING PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW AND SEAS JUST DOWNWIND BUILDING IN EXCESS OF 20 FT DURING THIS TIME. STORM FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z-18Z TODAY...THEN REMAIN 30-40 KT SEVERAL MORE DAYS INTO MID- WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT STORM CONDITIONS TO REDEVELOP LATE MON NIGHT AROUND 06Z. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LARGE NE SWELL EXTENDING FAR BEYOND ITS SOURCE REGION THAT WILL MERGE WITH SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EVENT TO CREATE HIGH MIXED SEAS EXTENDING BEYOND 110W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG E-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL THROUGH GAPS IN CENTRAL AMERICA. A STRONGER PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WILL INCREASE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 35 KT TODAY. LATEST HI-RES GFS SUGGESTS WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF NICOYA TO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THIS PROLONGED STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IS IMPACTING THE ENTIRE REGION FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. A VERY LARGE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 90W-110W THROUGH TUE.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N90W TO 06N126W TO 03N140W. SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 03N-04N BETWEEN 91W-96W.


...DISCUSSION...

RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICS GENERALLY W OF 120W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MAX SEAS ARE 7 FT BETWEEN 25N-26N. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS TO PERSIST IN SMALL PORTION N OF 30N THROUGH TUE. THE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE E PACIFIC HIGH ALSO MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS W OF 130W BASED ON MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA...SUPPORTING 9-11 FT SEAS. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8-10 FT GENERALLY S OF 13N W OF 110W. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30N140W MON MORNING WITH NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW PART OF THE AREA TODAY. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED N OF 26N AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH MON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-13 FT AS THE FRONT REMAINS IN FAR NW PORTION MON...THEN WEAKENS TUE.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 02N-04N THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9-11 FT NEAR 06N81W BY MON AFTERNOON. A SMALL AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS WILL PULSE S-SE OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA THROUGH TUE.

$$ MUNDELL

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