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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210321
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 07N78W TO 06N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO A 1009 MB EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE AT 08N103W...WITH THE ITCZ CONTINUING WSW TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG OBSERVED NEAR THE EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 08N96W TO 07N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM OF 05N80W...AND ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 60 NM OF 07N125W AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N136W TO 08N140W.


...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N106W TO 19N113W. DENSE UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING SE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE N OF 26N BETWEEN 110-122W TO INCLUDE THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE... ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 138-159W...CONTINUES TO STREAM E AND NE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 0N140W TO 10N120W TO OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT 19N105W...THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES NE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...TURNING ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS MOST OF FLORIDA.

AT THE LOW LEVELS...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE E ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS N OF THE ITCZ W OF ABOUT 115W...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-16 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS NEAR 30N122W. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL SOON ARRIVE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT ON SUN...BUT EXPECT 7-10 FT SEAS ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON SUN AFTERNOON. THE SWELLS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE WITH 5-8 FT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON MON AND MON NIGHT...AND 4-7 FT SEAS EXPECTED ON TUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS S OF 28N. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT...SEAS 10-12 FT...ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 118-126W ON SUN NIGHT AND MON...THEN DIMINISHING TO 15- 20 KT ON TUE. GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 29N ON TUE...THEN SPREAD SW TO NEAR 27N117W ON TUE NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY LATE WED.

A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED AT 30N135W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 17N104W. NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-14 FT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 08-22N W OF 120W. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX ON MON WITH THE EFFECTED AREA OF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS SHRINKING THROUGH MON NIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS ON TUE. THE COMBINED SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO THE 6-9 FT RANGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS W OF 115W BY THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND 10-15 KT ON SUN NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ON MON NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT THAT THE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT LATE TUE NIGHT...THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO STRONG GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT THE GALE EVENT TO END ON THU NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUE...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW ON TUE NIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS ON WED NIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-25 KT EVENT ON THU NIGHT EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 08N92W.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN NIGHT THEN DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT LATE MON AND MON NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...WITH 20- 30 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FT IN LONG FETCH WATERS NEAR 29N BY TUE EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ON WED WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW ON THU.

$$ NELSON

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