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AXPZ20 KNHC 011005
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0930 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND IN COLOMBIA FROM 09N75W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 04N77W TO 00N81W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 00N TO 02N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W.

SURFACE TROUGH FROM 07N82W TO 06N87W TO 04N91W. ITCZ FROM 04N91W TO 05N120W TO 06N127W TO 04N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W.


...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 35N121W CALIFORNIA COAST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH 32N123W...TO 22N129W TO 10N131W...TO 01N134W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 115W AND 120W.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...THROUGH 30N120W...TO 27N130W TO 29N138W. THE FRONT IS BRING NORTHERLY WINDS THAT RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS THAT RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 FEET.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE 18-HOUR FORECAST GIVES 20 TO 25 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR ONLY 6 HOURS. THE 42-HOUR FORECAST GIVES 20 TO 25 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ONLY FOR 6 HOURS ALSO.

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 28/1540 UTC SHOW 25 KNOTS. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOTS MOSTLY...WITH SOME 12-HOUR PERIODS OF ONLY 20 TO 25 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME LATE TONIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OCCURRING ON SUN AND MON NIGHTS...AND A MUCH WEAKER EVENT ON TUE NIGHT.

THE GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT TILL MON NIGHT WHEN GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT.

$$ MT

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