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AXPZ20 KNHC 032159
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAR 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N86W TO LOW PRES 1007 MB NEAR 04.5N90.5W TO 06.5N107W TO 04.5N118W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 180 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF LOW NEAR 04.5N90.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 210 NM N OF AXIS W OF 129W.


...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOS ANGELES AREA NEAR 33.5N119W TO 17N125W AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT HAS SWEPT THROUGH MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND EXTENDING THROUGH 27N110W TO 22N111W TO 14N130W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS DEEP LAYERED AND HAS GENERATED A 1012 MB CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N118W. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOWED TWO AREAS OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS...ONE FROM 08N TO 17N W OF 133W...WHERE THE TRADEWINDS ARE KICKING UP STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ...AND THE OTHER N OF 26N BETWEEN 121W AND 125W...IN NW TO N WINDS OCCURRING W THROUGH SW OF THE SURFACE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES WILL SHIFT W OF 140W AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH WED. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...1032 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTH THEN SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 22N120W.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST-PAC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY WED THEN WEAKEN THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A LATE MORNING ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE GULF TO ABOUT 14.5N...WHERE SEAS WERE LIKELY 8-9 FT. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GAP WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THIS EVENING WITH SEAS RAPIDLY SUBSIDING AS WELL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT WILL BEGIN LATE THU AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE W GULF OF MEXICO...WITH WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO STRONG GALE THU NIGHT...AND REACHING NEAR STORM FORCE EARLY FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE... WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 25 KT TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THU AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO 04N-05N THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN EARLY THU BELOW 20 KT AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

$$ STRIPLING

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