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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280901
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
900 UTC Tue Feb 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

No well defined Monsoon Trough/ITCZ at present.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to locally strong southwest winds are ongoing over the
northern Gulf of California this morning ahead of a cold front
moving eastward across Baja California Norte early today, and
through the northern Gulf of California into this afternoon.
These winds will diminish later this morning as the front
approaches. The front will stall and become diffuse tonight.
Northwest swell to 8 ft will move into the waters off Baja
California Norte beyond 200 nm through Wednesday night then
subside. Strong high pressure building north of the area over the
Great Basin will support strong northwest winds along the length
of the Gulf of California from Wednesday night into early Friday
morning. with seas reaching 8 ft in the southern Gulf of
California Thursday. Looking ahead, the pressure gradient weakens
across the region, allowing winds and seas diminish Friday and
Saturday.

Farther south, varying winds at 10 kt or less generally prevail
all the way to the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Little change is expected
through today. Looking ahead, a cold front will sweep through
the southwest Gulf of Mexico by Thursday and funnel strong gap
winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale force winds will be
possible Thursday night through Saturday morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Offshore gap winds are increasing this morning to 20-25 kt, but
will diminish to 20 kt or less this afternoon. Strong overnight pulses
will continue through the remainder of the week. The strong
areas of gap winds will allow seas of 8 ft downstream within 200
nm of the coast each night. Fresh gap winds will also develop
each night through the Gulfs of Panama and Fonseca. Elsewhere,
light to gentle breezes will persist.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends from near Tijuana Mexico to 24N128W. A broad
area of mainly northwest swell to 9 ft is observed in altimeter
data west of the front north of 20N. Moderate northeast winds are
starting to increase slightly to 20 kt behind the front as high
pressure builds north of the region. Farther south, a small area
of seas to 8 ft is observed by altimeter satellites near 10N135W.
The northeast winds will increase through mid week, reaching 25
kt from 20N to 25N. The combination of the slightly increased
northeast winds and persistent long period northwest swell will
support seas of 8 to 10 ft over much of the region north of 05N
and west of 120W Wednesday and Thursday. Winds will diminish
slightly across the region by Friday, allowing seas to subside
from east to west below 8 ft through Saturday.

$$
CHRISTENSEN

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