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AXPZ20 KNHC 011538
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED OCT 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED A LITTLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES ANALYZED ON THE 1200 UTC SURFACE MAP NEAR 16N103W WITH AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 100W AND 106W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TODAY OR THURSDAY WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES W-NW OR NW NEAR 10 KT. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 12N90W TO LOW PRES NEAR 16N103W TO 11N120W TO 12N135W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 12N135W TO BEYOND 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 06N E OF 81W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 14N96.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE N OF 12N TO THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 94W AND 100W. PART OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 100W AND 106W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW PRES PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 113W AND 120W.


...DISCUSSION... WIND WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH A SUSTAINED FRESH SW MONSOONAL FLOW S OF THE LOW NEAR 16N103W ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION S OF 15N TO PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF 8-10 FT SEAS THROUGH THU MAINLY S OF 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W.

LATEST ASCAT DATA SHOWED 30-33 KT NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS W OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WAVES GENERATED BY THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE N WATERS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 30N118W TO 27N125W TO 30N134W. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION BY THU WITH SEAS TO 9 FT COVERING ROUGHLY THE AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 119W AND 134W.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER NE WATERS AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THU THROUGH FRI...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-7 FT IN GULF WATERS N OF 25N BY LATE THU.

$$ GR

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