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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241532
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAY 24 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1230 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVE...

A tropical wave was analyzed just east of the area from 03N-13N along 76W. Scattered moderate to strong convection was within 120 nm of the coast of Panama and Colombia ahead of the tropical wave. This wave is moving west around 20 kt.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis was analyzed from 9N78W to 09N87W to 08N95W to 11N110W to 1009 mb low pressure near 09N123W to 07N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection was within 150 nm southeast quadrant, 240 nm southwest quadrant, and between 150 nm and 300 nm northwest quadrant of low pressure. Isolated moderate convection was noted within 150 nm north of the axis west of 131W and within 150 nm south of the axis between 127W-133W.


...DISCUSSION...

1028 mb high pressure centered northwest of the area near 45N141W extends a ridge southeastward into the forecast area through 32N139W to 1013 mb high pressure near 13N94W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure across Baja California is producing moderate to fresh north-northwest winds across the near and offshore waters of the Baja Peninsula. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds generally south of 20N and west of 118W. A 1009 mb area of low pressure currently present along the monsoon trough is forecast to continue west along the monsoon trough before dissipating midweek. Trade winds near this low center may occasionally increase to locally strong across the northern portion of the lows, especially as convection flares up. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection was within 150 nm southeast quadrant, 240 nm southwest quadrant, and between 150 nm and 300 nm northwest quadrant of the low pressure system. Seas across this trade wind zone will remain in the 5-7 ft range through Thursday.

Weak low pressure over the far northern Gulf of California is dissipating this morning. Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail over the far northern Gulf of california while variable light to gentle winds are prevail across the southern Gulf of California. Weak low pressure is expected to appear again during the evening hours tonight and Wednesday night only to diminish in the late morning hours. The pressure gradient is expected to tighten between this low and the building subtropical ridge to the southwest on Wednesday night. A fresh to strong southwest breeze is forecast from 29.5N-31N Wednesday evening through early Thursday morning with seas building to 6 ft.

$$ Schauer

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