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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192125
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN APR 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N106W TO 03N120W TO 06N132W TO 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 88W AND 94W.


...DISCUSSION...

A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW CENTERED W OF CALIFORNIA AT 36N128W TO 29N125W TO 20N137W TO 16N150W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED SW OF MEXICO NEAR 12N107W. A LARGE PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN THESE TWO MAJOR FEATURES EXTENDING FROM 12N133W THROUGH 23N120W ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE IS IN THE FORM OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ONLY MINOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE OCEAN SURFACE.

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK...AS NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE N OF 20N AND A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE CONTINUES S OF 08N. LINGERING NW SWELL WITH SEAS TO 8-9 FT LOCATED FROM 07N TO 16N W OF 129W WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO AN AREA W OF LINE FROM 16N140W TO 11N130W TO 07N140W THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. A SURGE OF N SWELL WILL SWEEP S OF 30N MON...AND COVER AN AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 127W AND 138W TUE.

$$ MUNDELL

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