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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260905
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
719 UTC Sun Jun 26 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0630 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to a low pressure area
near 08N93W 1011 mb to 09N113W to a low pressure area near 13N126W
1011 mb to 10N131W. The ITCZ continues from 10N131W to beyond 10N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present within
180 nm of the monsoon trough between 90W and 104W. Scattered
moderate convection is found from 06N to 14N between 115W and 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

N of 15N E of 120W:

A NNW to SSE-oriented trough will continue to reside over the
Baja California peninsula for the next several days. Light to
gentle S to SW winds will prevail over the Gulf waters through at
least Wed.

Fresh to strong N winds will continue along the California coast
through Thu. N swell generated by the winds will combine with SW
swell to maintain combined seas between 8 and 9 ft generally N of
26N and W of 118W through Tue. The swell are expected to propagate
southward across 32N to the W of 120W on Wed and Thu.

Strong N winds are expected to develop across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec each night from tonight through Wed night. Seas will
only top out between 8 and 9 ft due to the limited duration of the
northerly pulses.

S of 15N E of 120W:

A short lived gap wind event will affect the Gulf of Papagayo
today as N to NE winds of 20 to 25 kt cause seas to build to 8
ft. Winds will subside below 20 kt and seas will fall below 8 ft
by this evening.

Moderate monsoonal flow prevails S of the monsoon trough, while
gentle to moderate NE to E winds are observed N of the monsoon
trough.

Long period cross-equatorial SW swell have subsided. This has
allowed seas to fall below 8 ft except in the vicinity of the
Gulf of Papagayo. Wave guidance indicates another round of long
period SW swell will cross the equator this afternoon and slowly
spread northeastward and cause seas S of 10N to build to between 8
and 10 ft on Mon and Tue.

W of 120W:

A broad ridge still presides over the EPAC waters to the N of 13N,
where moderate to fresh NE winds are observed. Otherwise, light
to moderate NE trades are seen N of the monsoon trough. Moderate
SE winds are occurring S of the ITCZ and moderate SW winds are
found S of the monsoon trough. This general setup for winds is
expected to continue for the next several days.

Surface low pressure is embedded in the monsoon trough near
13N126W. A small area of moderate to fresh NE winds is located in
the northern quadrant of the low from 13N and 18N between 123W and
130W. This system is expected to gradually develop as it tracks
westward at 10 to 15 kt. 20 to 25 kt winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are
expected in the N quadrant of the low as it tracks westward. The
low is expected to cross to the W of 140W on Tue.

Strong N to NE winds along the California coast are expected to
generate N to NE swell that will spread southwestward through the
waters N of 20N on Wed and Thu.

Long period cross-equatorial SW swell will cross the equator and
cause seas to build to between 8 and 9 ft S of 10N and E of 130W on
Mon and Tue.

$$
cam

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