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AXPZ20 KNHC 051548
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI FEB 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STORM FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS WITH SEAS TO 22 FT AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO STRONG GALE FORCE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN FURTHER DIMINISH TO A MAX OF 40 KT ON SAT MORNING. STRENGTHENING POST FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE AGAIN LATE SAT...AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY SAT NIGHT. A STRONG GALE AT SUNRISE SUN SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT SUN TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE AT SUNRISE ON MON. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS STORM CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN MON NIGHT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS... WITH SEAS TO 10 FT...OBSERVED LAST NIGHT NEAR 28.5N ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO RELAX SUPPORTING 20-25 KT NW WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING WITH 20-25 KT NW PULSES EXPECTED ON SAT. ONLY 20 KT NW FLOW EXPECTED ON SUN NIGHT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG TO NEAR GALE ENE PULSES ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX SOME TONIGHT SUPPORTING MOSTLY 20-25 KT WINDS ON SAT. THE GRADIENT WILL THEN TIGHTEN SAT EVENING INCREASING THE NE FLOW TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE AT SUNRISE ON SUN...WITH THE NARROW BAND OF GALE CONDITIONS SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR FLOW EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 08N92W...RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 12 FT NEAR 10N87W. PATCHES OF STRONG NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SAT NIGHT N OF 12N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...INCLUDING THE WATERS OF THE GULF OF FONSECA WITH SEAS TO ABOUT 7 FT IN THE LIMITED FETCH. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 04N77W TO 01N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS BEEN FLARING WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ FORMS NEAR 06.5N83W AND EXTENDS W TO 04N91W TO 06N122W...THEN DIPS SW TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 03N86W TO 03N104W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N113W TO 07N122W TO 05N130W.


...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 27N120W TO 17N103W. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING N-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 113- 120W...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT CONDITIONS TONIGHT. MOSTLY 10-15 KT N-NE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 108-113W...AND 5- 10 KT NE-E WINDS N OF 15N BETWEEN 97-110W...WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED STORM/GALE EVENT ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF 97W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE OF CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. NW SWELLS...IN THE FORM OF COMBINED 7-11 FT SEAS...CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN 120W AND BAJA...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE FROM THE N ON SAT WITH 3-5 FT SEAS EXPECTED BY SUN NIGHT.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 05N W OF 106W. PULSES FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 10 FT NEAR 06N81W.

ELSEWHERE FROM 00-32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 05-10N W OF 127W THROUGH EARLY TUE...WITH SEAS OF 10-13 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE WINDS WAVE AND LONG PERIOD S AND N SWELL. LARGE NW LONG PERIOD SWELL...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE W OF 106W. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHING NEAR 30N140W ON WED EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY STRONG SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 29-32N W OF 138W ON TUE NIGHT.

$$ NELSON

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