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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302110 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT APR 30 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N87W TO 07N102W TO 06N119W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 09N122W TO 04N123W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N124W TO 04N139W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FIRST TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 120W.


...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 41N132W. LATEST ASCAT IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW U.S. IS CAUSING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE ADJACENT WATERS E OF 128W. SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA IN A MIXED SWELL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT 42-48 HOURS.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 26N111W. THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND THE LOW AND TROUGH IS GENERATING S-SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29.5N. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE MOVING SE WHILE WEAKENING BY MID WEEK. FRESH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF NW SWELL...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

$$

ERA

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