Home


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180339
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jan 18 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A meandering trough extends from 06N76W TO 03N100W. The ITCZ
extends from 03N100W TO 07N122W TO beyond 06.5N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is located within 270 nm N
of the ITCZ between 112W and 130W. Scattered to locally numerous
strong convection is occurring from 11.5N to 18N between 110W
and 121W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Satellite imagery shows a dissipating frontal trough across the
Pacific offshore waters west of Baja California extending from
23N113W to 27N120W and has become nearly stationary. A
supporting upper level trough extends from a deep layered cut
off low across SW New Mexico border SW to beyond 19N130W. An
upper level jetstream is moving through the base of this trough
and into central Mexico, and transporting an upper level cloud
and moisture plume. Strong low level convergence is occurring in
a broad zone about 200 nm wide from offshore of Cabo Corrientes
near 20N107W to near 13N122W. Scattered to numerous convection
described above is occurring within this zone and being enhanced
by the jetstream energy aloft, with lighter elevated convection
likely moving NE and inland across western Mexico between
Manzanillo and Mazatlan and continuing NE across the Sierra
Madres. Gentle to moderate mainly northwest winds prevail off
the coast of Baja California and in the Gulf of California.
Light to gentle northerly winds prevail south and east of
Acapulco. Seas across the area are running 5-6 ft west of Baja
California, 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California, and 3-5 ft
elsewhere.

Global models indicate a cold front will move into the waters
off Baja California Norte Thursday, then become diffuse ahead of
a much stronger cold front that will quickly move in across Baja
California and the Gulf of California Friday and Saturday. The
second front will be accompanied by fresh to strong winds and
large northwest swell. This swell is expected to build seas to
12-19 ft over the waters off Baja California Norte Saturday, and
8-13 ft seas off Baja California Sur. This will produce
hazardous marine conditions to mariners navigating the nearshore
and coastal waters, and very dangerous surf conditions along the
coasts and beaches.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate northwest winds this afternoon will pulse to 25 kt late
tonight through Wednesday morning, and then again briefly late
Wednesday night across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to
about 89W. Winds area then expected to diminish by Thursday
night. Light to gentle variable winds are expected there Friday.

Light to gentle easterly winds will prevail elsewhere through
Saturday. Seas will be generally 3-5 ft in the forecast waters.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1024 mb high pressure centered near 28N134W extends a ridge
southeast to the Revillagigedo Islands. The gradient between
this high and lower pressure associated with the Itch is
supporting an area of fresh to strong northeast trade winds from
10N TO 15N W OF 130W, with 9-11 ft seas. Fresh trades are found
elsewhere from 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 119W AND 130W, with seas 8-10
ft in mixed northwest swell and northeast wind waves. The zone
of strongest trade winds will decrease in coverage and shift
westward during the next couple of days. Fresh trades will
remain from 07N to 20N west of 122W, with 8-10 ft seas in mixed
northeast waves and northwest swell.

As mentioned above, a very active jet stream branch is rounding
the base of the deep layered trough across northwest Mexico. The
upper trough will move eastward during the next couple of days
as high pressure aloft builds eastward behind the previously
mentioned cold fronts, with associated moisture and weather
shifting eastward with it.

Looking ahead, northwest swell with seas to 8-12 ft associated
with a cold front moving eastward across the waters north of 25N
Wednesday and Thursday will be followed by a second front
expected to sweep southeastward into northern waters Thursday
night and Friday. Wave model guidance shows large northwest
swell will propagate southeastward into the waters north of 20N
behind the second front, with seas building to 15-20 ft in the
far northern waters east of 130W late Friday into Saturday.

$$
Stripling

Home