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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160235
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED APR 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SURGING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT MINIMAL STORM FORCE...AND EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT WED MORNING WITH WINDS BELOW GALE ON WED AFTERNOON. THE RESULTANT N-NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SW MIXING WITH LONG-PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL. SEAS WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT NEAR 06N105W LATE THU NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5-15 KT ARE THEN EXPECTED EACH DAY...AND LATE NIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW OF 10-20 KT IS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W ACROSS SOUTHERN E PANAMA TO ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA CONTINUING W ACROSS SOUTHERN W PANAMA TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N77W TO 08N812W TO 05N99W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ AXIS...WHICH IN TURN WIGGLES WESTWARD BETWEEN 04-05N TO BEYOND 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N80W TO 05N96W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER...AND TO THE N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N120W TO 06N133W.


...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 10N120W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N TO BEYOND 34N127W. THE ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE ITCZ TO THE W OF 112W. DENSE UPPER MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...WITHIN 360 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N140W TO 28N116W...THEN SPILLS SE ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS ADVANCING E ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL MEXICO INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 12N105W WITH A TROUGH STILL CONTINUING SW TO A BASE AT 02N114W. THIS TROUGH SEPARATES THE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALREADY MENTIONED OVER THE NW PORTION FROM ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE S OF 17N E OF 96W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED.

A SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N138W TO NEAR 19N114W. NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT S OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS FROM 06-19N BETWEEN 122-140W WITH SEAS OF 7-10 FT IN MIXED LONG PERIOD NW AND CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELL. THIS AFFECTED AREA S OF THE RIDGE WILL SHRINK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT FORM NE OF THE RIDGE AND SPREAD S INTO THE AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 118-127W ON THU.

$$ NELSON

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