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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210336
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI NOV 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W ALONG 7N99W TO E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 11N115W. ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 10N119W AND EXTENDS ALONG 10N131W TO 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W-99W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 123W-127W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 134W-140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 82W-88W.


...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPERIENCING STRONG N TO NE WINDS WHILE SEAS REMAIN 9 TO 10 FT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT BY FRI MORNING.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 27N W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N127W TO 30N131W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA FROM 17N-26N E OF 120W AND FROM 20N-30N W OF 120W. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STAY N OF 30N DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD BEFORE MOVING INLAND BY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 118W ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 30N143W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OF THE TROPICS IS INDUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ W OF 132W WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 48 HRS. AN AREA OF MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE BETWEEN 120W AND THE AREA ABOVE WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8 TO 9 FT. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD AND RETREAT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS THEN PERSIST THROUGH 48 HRS.

IN THE TROPICS...THE AREA SOUTH OF THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS MOISTURE LADEN AND THUS ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. SEE ABOVE. THE ELONGATED SURFACE LOW IS IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 14N112W TO 9N117W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 105W-116W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ NORTHWARD THROUGH FRI BEFORE DISSIPATING. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS TO 8 FT BEFORE MOVING W EXPANDING THE TRADE WINDS EASTWARD BUILDING SEAS FROM 8 TO 9 FT.

WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A NEW SET OF NW SWELLS...IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT PASSES JUST N OF 30N WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NW INTO NE WATERS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF NW SWELLS WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CORNER ON SAT.

$$ PAW

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