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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271525
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 09N105W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY FRI MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW INTO A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND SCATTEROMETER DATA AT 0340 UTC SHOWED 20-25 KT SW WINDS DISPLACED 150-240 NM SE OF THE CIRC CENTER. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 04-12N ALONG 95W HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 93W AND 98W.

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 09N119W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FAR TO THE WEST OF THE LOW WITHIN 90 NM OF 11N123W. NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT WITHIN 180 NM OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI.

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 12N131W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 45 NM OF THE CENTER. THE PRES GRADIENT SUPPORTS NE 15-20 KT TRADES WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM NW OF THE LOW WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W-SW THROUGH FRI AND WEAKEN.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ IN THE EASTERN PAC. BROAD AREA UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALLOWING RANDOMLY SPACED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 03N TO 14N E OF 101W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 105W AND 126W.


...DISCUSSION...

BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1020 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 27N129W PREVAILS OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN WATERS N OF 18N W OF 110W. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W TO 22N143W BISECTS THE RIDGE IN FAR NW WATERS. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AND TRANSITION INTO A QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH THROUGH THU NIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 27N132W.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONTINUED MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE WINDS PULSING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH FRI NIGHT...BUT NO LONGER SHOWS WINDS GREATER THAN 20 KT...AND ASSOCIATED SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW 8 FT AS A RESULT. THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 20-25 KT N WIND EVENT APPEARS LOWER AS WELL. LATEST GFS SHOWS MAX WINDS ONLY 10-15 KT THU AND FRI.

$$ MUNDELL

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