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AXPZ20 KNHC 222117
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2000 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N77W TO 10N87W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N101W 1010 MB TO 08N110W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N110W TO 11N119W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 09N123W TO 07N127W TO 09N135W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS N OF THE AXIS TO 11N W OF 131W AND S OF THE AXIS TO 06N W OF 129W.


...DISCUSSION... A 1029 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 31N137W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD THROUGH 30N127W TO SOCORRO ISLAND. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS FROM 10N-21N W OF 130W AS WELL AS FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WITHIN 300 NM W OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 15N119W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N121W. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL MIGRATE NE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER W WATERS AND SHRINKING THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS TO NEAR THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES TO 16N124W TO 10N126W BY MIDDAY SUN...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO A FRESH BREEZE BY MIDDAY MON. A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH WATERS N OF 25N W OF 135W AT THE MOMENT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH W WATERS THROUGH MON AND ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE SUN AND MON. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 08N W OF 117W FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACCOMPANIES THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW OVER THE AREA FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 115W AND 120W. PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MAXIMUM OF MOISTURE NEAR THE TROUGH AND LOW WHICH LIES UNDER THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH LA PAZ MEXICO TO NEAR 15N125W. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL PULL E OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES W...CARRYING THE MOISTURE WITH IT. THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD STILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER JET QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE SYSTEM AND CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE VERTICAL MOTION. PRESENTLY...THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE WEST- NORTHWESTERLY JET IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ITCZ OVER WATERS W OF 129W. THIS CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE.

GAP WINDS...FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEGINNING LATE SUN...REACHING 25N BY MIDDAY MON. HIGH PRES BUILDING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NE TO N CENTRAL MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT

$$ SCHAUER

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