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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011529
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE JIMENA CENTERED NEAR 16.9N 140.1W AT 1500 UTC...MOVING WNW 290 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 105 KT GUSTS TO 130 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 955 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT JIMENA HAS A WELL DEFINED 12 NM EYE. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST THREE HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE IN BANDS WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER. JIMENA WILL MOVE W OF 140W INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC LATER TODAY...BUT OUTER EFFECTS OF THE HURRICANE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT W OF THE AREA AND PERSIST UNTIL THU OR FRI. JIMENA HAS A LARGE AREA OF STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WITHIN 500 NM OF THE CENTER...WITH MAX SEAS TO 43 FT. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC AND HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEPI/FZPN02 KWBC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 13.0N 113.6W AT 1500 UTC...MOVING NNW 330 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE NEAR THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 111W AND 116W. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THIS EVENING AND INTENSIFY TO 40 KT WED. IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FRI AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER WATERS WHILE MOVING FURTHER NORTH. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N80W TO 11N90W TO 09N97W TO 12N105W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 03N E OF 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 95W AND 101W.


...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER NORTHERN WATERS N OF 21N W OF 120W. AN ASCAT PASS TODAY INDICATED SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 28N ASSOCIATED WITH A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE GILA AND COLORADO IN THE U.S. DESERT SOOUTHWEST. SOME NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS EARLIER ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA IS BUMPING SEAS UP TO 8 FT N OF 28N BETWEEN 128W-130W. ANOTHER AREA OF SOUTHERLY SWELL IS REACHING SOUTHERN WATERS...WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL EXPECTED TO BE S OF 06N BETWEEN 103W AND 133W BY THU.

$$ FORMOSA

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