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AXPZ20 KNHC 292158
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES IS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS AT 29/2100 UTC. AT THIS TIME...IT IS CENTERED NEAR 12.8N 114.8W MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 110W AND 117W. ANDRES HAS STRENGTHENED INTO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2015 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NW ACROSS THE OPEN OCEAN THROUGH SUN MORNING. SWELLS GENERATED BY ANDRES COULD IMPACT THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES AND LOS CABOS BY SAT EVENING SPREADING ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SUN. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/ MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N TO 15N ALONG 100W. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE WEST DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF HURRICANE ANDRES. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WITH SOME CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 98W AND 101W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THEY ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 09N124W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM NW QUADRANT OF CENTER. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 12-24 HOURS.

ANOTHER 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 10N138W. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W-SW AROUND 10 KT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.


...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 34N130W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE N WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SUN AND SHIFT WEST AHEAD OF ANDRES APPROACHING FROM THE SE. THE CENTER OF ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO PASS WITHIN AROUND 240 NM SW OF CLARION ISLAND BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR CLARION ITSELF TO REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...BUT WILL SEE 20 TO 30 KT BY SUNDAY WITH SEAS OF 12-14 FT. FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH LOWER PRES IN THE DEEP TROPICS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL ALLOW FRESH GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT WITH SEAS TO 7 FT.

AN EARLIER ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE DEEP TROPICS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN TROPICAL LOW IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF NE- E 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 135W WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT.

A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS WHILE A ANOTHER FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THESE TWO FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO MERGE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE NW WATERS ON SAT.

$$ GR

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