Home


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310302
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
000 UTC Wed Aug 31 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Hurricane Lester is centered at 17.8N 136.5W or about 1225 statue
miles east of Hilo, Hawaii at 0300 UTC Aug 31, moving west or 260
degrees at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt. Scattered
strong convection is within 90 nm over east semicircle. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong elsewhere within 120 nm over west
semicircle. Lester is forecast to cross 140W on Wed. Refer to the
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC, and the latest high seas forecast under WMO
header FZPN02 KWBC for additional details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 13N99W to 11N108W to 12N116W
to 15N127W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
within 60 nm along the coast of Costa Rica, within 75 nm along
the coast of Guatemala and Mexico between 91W and 94W, and within
75 nm along the coast of west Mexico from 19N to 22N. Scattered
moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between 83W and 89W, from
12N to 16N between 105W and 109W, and within 90 nm south of the
monsoon trough between 109W and 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A sub-tropical ridge is maintaining moderate NW flow with 3 to 5
ft seas across the Pacific waters along the Baja Peninsula, except
moderate to fresh northwest flow, with seas 6 to 9 ft, is
forecast across the waters north of 30N through Wed night. Light
and variable winds are expected elsewhere along the Pacific coast
of Mexico, with combined seas of 3 to 6 ft primarily due to long-
period cross-equatorial swell. A thermal trough will meander over
the Baja Peninsula, and across the northern Gulf of California
supporting light southerly flow across the Gulf of California into
the upcoming weekend when moderate southwest flow is forecast
between 30N and 31N.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds will prevail south of
the monsoon trough axis with light to gentle west to northwest winds
forecast north of the trough axis. Long period cross equatorial
southwesterly swell will with combined seas of 5 to 8 ft will
subside on Thu.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Except as previously mentioned, a 1030 mb surface high is
near 40N153W, drifting southeast, with a ridge extending
southeast to near 25N124W. An area of low pressure could form a
few hundred miles southwest of the south-central coast of Mexico
by the weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for slow development in 3 to 5 days as this system
tracks northwestward.

Otherwise, the ridge will extend from 32N138W to 20N122W on Thu
evening as conditions associated with Lester shift west of 140W.
By then, moderate to fresh northeast to east flow is expected
south of the ridge and north of the monsoon trough with combined
seas of 4 to 7 ft, with little change through the weekend.
Moderate to fresh north to northeast flow is forecast north of the
ridge, with 5 to 7 ft combined seas through the weekend.

$$
PAW

Home