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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270233
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON APR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N94W TO 06N108W TO 08N116W TO 01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 90W AND 97W...FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 100W AND 103W...FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 98W AND 106W...FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 106W AND 111W...WITHIN 300 NM NE OF A LINE FROM 01N114W TO 07N120W...AND ALSO WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 126W AND 131W.


...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA SW TO 26N115W TO A BASE NEAR 21N130W. OVERALL DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT REMAINS TO THE W OF THE TROUGHING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE W-NW ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF 130W. A 660 NM SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE NE AWAY FROM CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN THE ITCZ ZONE.

AT THE SURFACE...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA CENTRAL COAST AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE A GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AROUND AND OFFSHORE OF POINT CONCEPTION. AN OUTER AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FAR NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 118W AND 122W. FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS ARE ALSO BLOWING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE WESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE WINDS HAVE GENERATED FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL OF 8-11 FT REACHING TO 25N W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON MON AND THEN THE ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY TUE MORNING.

A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 35N131W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE FROM THE HIGH THROUGH 26N123W TO 15N102W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGING AND N OF THE LOWER PRESSURE VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 122W AND 132W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN THROUGH 24-48 HOURS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON MON.

A PAIR OF WEAK TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 10N100W TO 05N100W...AND THE WESTERN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 10N115W TO 04N116W. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE.

E OF 110W...EARLY AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT WIND CONDITIONS RANGE FROM A LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE AND ARE ACCOMPANIED BY 3 TO 6 FT SEAS ACCORDING TO ALTIMETER PASSES.

$$ LEWITSKY

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