Home


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070932
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT FEB 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO...AS A 1030 MB HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS CONTINUES TO GENERATE A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF STORM FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 35-45 KT GENERALLY COVERING AN AREA N OF 13N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W. GIVEN THE STRONG RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW BETWEEN THE 09Z-15Z TIME FRAME WITH SEAS JUST DOWNWIND BUILDING IN EXCESS OF 20 FT DURING THIS TIME. THE STORM FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 07/1800 UTC...THEN MAINTAIN REMAIN 30-40 KT SEVERAL MORE DAYS INTO MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST STORM CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP MON NIGHT. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LARGE NE SWELL EXTENDING FAR BEYOND ITS SOURCE REGION AND MERGE WITH SWELL GENERATED FROM THE CURRENT GULF OF PAPAGAYO EVENT TO CREATE HIGH AND CONFUSED SEAS EXTENDING W-SW TO BEYOND 110W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND ARE SPILLING THROUGH GAPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS BAYS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS...FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A LARGE PLUME OF 20- 30 KT NE WINDS EXTENDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS TO NEAR 07.5N95W...WHERE SEAS OF 8-10 FT PREVAIL. A STRONGER PRES GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BY 07/1200 UTC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND INCREASE THE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION TO 35 KT SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK TO GALE FORCE...TO NEAR 40 KT...ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF NICOYA TO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA SUN NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS PROLONGED STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IS IMPACTING THE ENTIRE REGION FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. A VERY LARGE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 90W-110W THROUGH MONDAY.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N90W TO 04N94W TO 03N98W TO 05N116W TO 03N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 91W AND 98W...AND WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N118W TO 04N140W.


...DISCUSSION... A STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 120W...FROM A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 37N127W EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 20N140W...AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICS GENERALLY W OF 120W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA....WITH ISOLATED AREAS TO 30 KT. SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE GULF DURING THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE LOCALIZED AREAS OF STRONGER WINDS. THE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE E PACIFIC HIGH IS ALSO MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS THESE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ NEAR 05N TO 15N W OF 129W. THE ENHANCED TRADES ARE SUPPORTING 9 TO 11 FT SEAS. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8-10 FT GENERALLY S OF 13N W OF 110W. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30N140W MON MORNING WITH NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT REACHING THE NW PART OF THE AREA SUN. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY N OF 26N AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 10- 13 FT AS THE FRONT SWEEPS INTO FAR NW PORTION MON.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 02N-04N THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-11 FT NEAR 06N81W BY MON AFTERNOON. AREA OF WINDS 25 TO 30 KT WILL PREVAIL SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA DURING THIS TIME.

$$ HUFFMAN

Home