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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140306
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0300 UTC Thu Dec 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 06.5N90W. The ITCZ continues from 06.5N90W to 06N105W to 11N122W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 114W and 128W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec: High pressure continues to weakend north of the area, with the resultant pressure gradient loosening further. Winds and seas continue to decrease, and will fall below advisory criteria by Thursday afternoon. Another brief gale force gap wind event is possible late Friday night through Saturday morning.

Gulf of California: Winds are expected to strengthen over the northern Gulf of California Thu night through Sat.

Elsewhere, NW swell of 7-9 ft will spread across the waters W of Baja California early Fri through Sat night. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the offshore Pacific waters of Mexico, with seas in the 4-6 ft range.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo through early Fri, then strengthen once again Sat night. Moderate to fresh N winds will funnel through the Gulf of Panama Thu and Fri. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3-5 ft will prevail elsewhere over this area the next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1026 mb centered north of the area near 37N130W extends a ridge southeast to near 20N110W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is maintaining moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 115W. The combination of NW swell and wind generated NE waves is producing combined seas of 8 to 10 ft across this area. A fresh set of NW swell has propagated into the NW waters, with seas near 10 ft. Seas will peak near 13 ft late tonight into Thursday morning before starting to subside. The swell will propagate southeast across the forecast waters over the next several days. By Saturday night, seas of 8 ft or greater will cover much of the forecast area west of 110W.

$$ AL

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