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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272135
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jun 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 11N95W to 10N110W.
ITCZ from 07N123W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection from 08N to 12N between 96W-106W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection from 09N to 12N between 109W-121W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave over Central America moving westward at 15 kt
will enter the eastern Pacific waters tonight. Active deep
convection is occurring over eastern Nicaragua.

...DISCUSSION...

A weak surface pressure pattern continues across the forecast
area. Scatterometer data shows mainly light to gentle winds in
the basin, with a few areas of moderate winds on either side of
the convergence zone. High pressure over the northern Gulf of
Mexico will support enhanced Gulf of Tehuantepec Gap winds to 25
kt each night the next few day. Models are hinting at enhanced
Papagayo winds occurring later this week.

An area of cross-equatorial sw swell will propagate northward
over forecast waters mainly west of 95W and east of 125W through
the first half of next week. Swell of 8 to 10 ft will reach as
far north as 15N by Wed morning.

Tropical cyclone development is not expected through Friday, but
models are hinting at a low forming near 12N103W this weekend.

$$
Mundell

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