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AXPZ20 KNHC 262149
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT... AND REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON FRI EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE ON SAT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 12 FT NEAR 14.5N95W ON SAT MORNING. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT ON MON EVENING.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA TO 06N94W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ FORMS AND THEN CONTINUES W TO 08N114W...THEN DIPS SW TO 07N121W... THEN TURNS NW AN EMBEDDED TROUGH DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA NEAR 09N130W...THEN THE ITCZ DIPS SW TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N106W TO 09N114W TO 07N122W TO 09N132W.


...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS FILLING W OF THE AREA NEAR 18N146W WITH ITS CYCLONIC ENVELOP EXTENDING E INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 10- 24N W OF 130W. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ENHANCED WITHIN THIS AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W FROM OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS THE TROPICS TO A CREST NEAR 10N123W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE UNDER THE W PORTION OF THIS RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION IS ADVECTED N AND NE...CONCENTRATING INTO INTO A 300 NM WIDE PLUME THAT CONTINUES ENE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 12N105W. A SMALL AREA OF EASTERLY 20-25 KT TRADES CURRENTLY OBSERVED FROM 13-18N W OF 135W WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT W OF 140W THIS EVENING. NW SWELLS HAVE BEEN MIXING WITH EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 130W. THE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON FRI WITH COMBINED SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY SAT. NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE NE OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-11 FT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 118-130W EARLY TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NW AT 15-20 KT LATE FRI AS THE N-N SWELLS REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 6-8 FT SEAS. THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT ON SAT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME S-SW ON FRI...INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN RELAX TO 10-15 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON SUN NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON MON NIGHT WITH ONLY A 5-10 KT SW- NW WIND SHIFT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON FRI NIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT ON MON NIGHT.

$$ NELSON

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