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AXPZ20 KNHC 311024 CCA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAR 31 2015

CORRECTED FOR DISCUSSION INFORMATION

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0930 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N93W TO 03N114W TO 07N124W...TO A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 08N124W TO 04N128W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N128W BEYOND 04N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 120W AND 126W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 115W AND 117W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 11N123W TO 06N127W TO 05N130W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N110W TO 12N112W TO 10N113W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 109W AND 116W...AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF 12N BETWEEN 115W AND 116W.
...DISCUSSION...

A SOUTH-OF-THE-EQUATOR ITCZ IS ALONG 05S86W 02S98W 03S111W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 01S TO 03S BETWEEN 101W AND 104W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04S BETWEEN 89W AND 97W.


...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 29N114W TO 21N119W...TO 16N129W 11N134W...AND TO 04N136W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THAT IS IN THE ITCZ NEAR THE 08N124W-TO-04N128W SURFACE TROUGH...IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 25N NORTHWARD...FROM THE 29N114W-TO-04N136W TROUGH WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA...ACROSS PANAMA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 08N100W...TO 13N115W.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N134W TO 30N139W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N139W BEYOND 30N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 30N137W 26N133W 22N126W...TO 18N113W.

EXPECT NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM 14N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 94W AND 96W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS WILL COVER THE AREA FROM 13N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 94W AND 96W FOR ANOTHER 6 HOURS OR SO. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN TO 20 KT OR LESS AND THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM THE MIDDAY HOURS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS IN NW SWELL WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...FROM THE AREA OF 30N123W...TOWARD 14N140W.

GAP WINDS...

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ACTIVE THIS MORNING UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE. THE SAME SCENARIO WILL START AGAIN IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AROUND SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER THAN 8 FEET FOR THE ENTIRE TIME.

$$ MT

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