Home


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240900
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAY 24 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 08N93W to 11N108W to low pres near 09N121W to 07N134W. The ITCZ extends from 07N134W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 03N to 08N between 87W and 93W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm N of the monsoon trough between 120W and 134W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm N of the ITCZ W of 134W.


...DISCUSSION...

Weak low pressure has developed over the far northern Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail over the far northern Gulf of california while variable light to gentle winds are prevail across the southern Gulf of California. The weak low pressure will dissipate this morning with winds diminishing. A new weak low will develop late tonight and dissipate once again Wednesday morning. Southwest to south winds across the southeastern half of the low are expected to increase to 20 kt again tonight, with seas building 4-5 ft.

High pressure of 1029 MB centered NW of the area near 44N142W extends a ridge SE into the forecast area near 30N133W to 16N110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure across Baja California is producing moderate to fresh north-northwest winds across the near and offshore waters of the Baja Peninsula. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds generally south of 20N and west of 120W. Several weak and transient areas of low pressure are currently present along the monsoon trough, and forecast to continue along the monsoon trough through the week. Trade winds near these low centers may occasionally increase to locally strong across the northern portion of the lows, especially as convection flares up. Seas across this trade wind zone will remain in the 5-7 ft range through Thursday.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

Light to moderate winds are expected to continue across the forecast area south of the monsoon trough through the week, with light and variable winds north of the trough. Combined seas of 3 to 5 feet will prevail through Wednesday morning, and then will build to 4 to 7 feet for the remainder of the week as new cross- equatorial southwesterly swell arrives. Active convection is expected to continue about the monsoon trough through mid week.

$$ AL

Home