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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242135
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAY 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ANALYZED AS A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 12N132W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED WITHIN 270 NM NE QUADRANT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN 210 NM N QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER WITH SEAS OF 9 TO 10 FT. THE LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT REACHES NEAR 14N133W MON MORNING. THE LOW WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS STARTING MON WHICH WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION AND WEAKEN THE LOW AS IT CONTINUES N-NW TO NEAR 17N136W BY TUE MORNING.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED NEAR 100W FROM 02N TO 12W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W AROUND 10-15 KT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ HAVE BROKEN DOWN WITH LIGHT WINDS FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHERE THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOUND. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 02N TO 10N E OF 87W. A BROAD LOW PRES SYSTEM WAS ANALYZED AS A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 08N117W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 107W AND 113W.


...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N W OF 120W...THE LAST OF A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH AN CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO. RIDGING BUILDING WESTWARD BEHIND THIS TROUGH IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE BAJA COAST...BUT GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE GRADIENT FLOW WILL PULSE UPWARD THIS EVENING MAINLY WITHING 200 NM SOUTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FT N OF 20N OFF THE BAJA COAST...BUT 5 TO 7 FT BETWEEN 15N AND 20N DUE THE LINGERING PRESENCE OF LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL REINFORCE WAVE HEIGHTS EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING 5 TO 7 FT SEAS AND BRINGING POTENTIALLY ROUGH SURF TO THE MEXICAN COAST FROM TEHUANTEPEC TO MANZANILLO.

S OF 15N W OF 110W...A SHARP UPPER RIDGE REACHES EAST TO WEST ALONG 10N OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH COSTA RICA...NORTH OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE NORTH OF 02N AND WEST OF 87W MAINLY ALONG 06N. RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN THIS AREA IS INTERACTING WITH RIDGING REACHING INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT. SEAS ARE ALREADY 5 TO 7 FT OVERALL DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF LONGER PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL LINGERING IN THE AREA...AND ADDITIONAL GAP WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW A PLUME OF SEAS TO 8 FT AS FAR WEST AS 90W TONIGHT OFF PAPAGAYO. ANOTHER ROUND OF LONGER PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE EQUATOR TONIGHT...REINFORCING 5 TO 7 FT SEAS AND BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ROUGH SURF TO THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST MON AND TUE. FARTHER WEST...A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 08N117W. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK SHOWING THE LOW PRES GRADUALLY DRIFTING WEST ALONG THE ITCZ. LOOKING AHEAD TO MID WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LOW PRES NEAR 12N105W THE DEVELOPING SLOWLY AS IT DRIFTS NW...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME DISCORD AMONG MODELS ON EXACT LOCATION AND STRENGTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ELSEWHERE...1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 44N136W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 30N125W TO THE ISLAS REVILLAGIGEDO. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TUE MORNING. ASIDE FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE...PRIMARILY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS LIE SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS. FRESH TO STRONG SE FLOW WAS NOTED IN A 17 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS...BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED WEST OF THE RIDGE NEAR 30N143W. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH MON. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND RELATED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT N OF 25N W OF 137W WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH MON NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 08N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WEST OF THE LOW PRES THROUGH 140W ALONG THE ITCZ...BUT AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS AND NEARBY TOGA-TAO BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AROUND THIS LOW. IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 12N132W SHIFTS N OF THE AREA.

$$ CHRISTENSEN

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