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AXPZ20 KNHC 041005
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0830 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...


...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN 48 HOURS...

GALE-FORCE NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WINDS...RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET...WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 48 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N103W TO 06N108W TO 04N121W TO 07N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM THE ITCZ TO 10N FROM 128W WESTWARD.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N87W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 05N91W...TO 03N95W TO 04N98W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 95W AND 97W.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N111W TO 10N114W TO 06N115W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 107W AND 113W.


...DISCUSSION...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 15N126W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS THE REMNANT OF THE EARLIER COLD FRONT.

SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM YESTERDAY SHOWED TRADEWIND FLOW FROM 10N TO 20N FROM 130W WESTWARD. THIS TRADEWIND FLOW AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET CONTINUING THROUGH 48 HOURS.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN THU.

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BENIGN FOR MOST OF THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. THE 48-HOUR FORECAST SHOWS A RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WITH A COLD FRONT... BURSTING TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE... WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 25 KT THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND FLOW WEAKENS IN SPEED DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS PICK UP MORE TO 20 KNOTS MORE DOWNSTREAM FROM PAPAGAYO THAN IN THE GULF AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING AND DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 20 KNOT WINDS RETURN IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO 04N-05N THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN EARLY THURSDAY BELOW 20 KNOTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

$$ MT

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