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AXPZ20 KNHC 160911
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED APR 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0815 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT MINIMAL STORM FORCE...BUT WILL SUBSIDE TO GALE FORCE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH WINDS BELOW GALE BY AFTERNOON. THE RESULTANT N-NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SW MIXING WITH LONG- PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL. SEAS WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT NEAR 06N105W LATE THU NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5-15 KT ARE THEN EXPECTED EACH DAY...AND LATE NIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW OF 10-20 KT IS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 10N88W TO 04N98W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 03N107W TO 05N125W TO 05N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 130W.


...DISCUSSION...

UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO 00N110W IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BEWTEEN 80W AND 90W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N140W TO SOUTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 17N110W. SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0430 UTC INDICATE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW FLOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 1004 MB LOW PRES OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.

SIMILARLY STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE THESE WINDS WILL NOT REACH SOUTH OF 30N...SWELL TO 9 FT GENERATED BY THESE WINDS WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH OF 30N THROUGH THU REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS 28N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W.

ASCAT SATELLITE DATA FROM AROUND 06 UTC INDICATED FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS COVERING THE AREA FROM 07N TO 20N W OF 125W. ALTIMETER DATA INDICATED SEAS TO 9 FT IN THIS AREA AS WELL. TRADE WINDS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN 125W AND 130W.

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO JUST EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII NEAR 20N150W WILL SHIFT EASTWARD N OF 20N...REACHING THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND ALLOW THE TRADE WIND FLOW TO RELAX SLIGHTLY TO 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

$$ CHRISTENSEN

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