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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022100
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE SEP 2 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2000 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS NEAR 18.5N 106.5W AT 2100 UTC OR ABOUT 325 NM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING N AT 8 KT. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDED WITHIN 30 NM NE QUADRANT AND 50 NM SE QUADRANT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM SE SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM N AND 390 NM S SEMICIRCLES. TO THE NORTH OF NORBERT...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM 23N TO 25N. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM 14Z SHOWED SEAS TO 12 FT EXTEND AROUND 210 NM SW QUADRANT OF CENTER WITHIN A LARGE SWATH OF 20-33 KT SW WINDS FOUND S OF NORBERT AS SEEN IN SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD BY TONIGHT AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY TOMORROW. NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO 08N96W TO 13N101W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 16N112W TO 10N137W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N137W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED N OF 04N E OF 88W AND WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FOUND S OF THE AXIS TO 10N BETWEEN 113W AND 125W.


...DISCUSSION...

THE PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STAGNANT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ASIDE FROM TROPICAL STORM NORBERT...CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST. AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 20N105W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE ALONG THE COAST TOWARD PANAMA WHERE IT MEETS UP WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGED NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS CONVERGED NEAR NORBERT AND SW ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS AREA ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN NORBERT AND 120W SHOULD ALSO REMAIN AN ACTIVE AREA FOR CONVECTION.

TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY AS BOTH THE REMNANTS OF MARIE JUST NW OF THE AREA AND AN UPPER LOW NEAR 10N135W DISRUPTING THE DEEP LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL HAS BROUGHT SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE AREA S OF 03N BETWEEN 110W AND 133W TODAY. THE SWELL SHOULD PUSH NORTHWARD...WITH SEAS OVER 8 FT REACHING AS FAR AS 08N IN CENTRAL WATERS BY MIDDAY WED BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE EARLY THU.

$$ SCHAUER/COBB/MUNDELL

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