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AXPZ20 KNHC 051544
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 08N125W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. THE LOW LIES WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 14N129W THAT IS PROVIDING A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM 01N TO 14N BETWEEN 123W AND 137W. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N108W TO 16N108W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH WEAK 700 MB TROUGHING AND GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 850 MB VORTICITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 105W AND 111W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N121W TO 16N120W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 118W AND 123W AND THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW CENTERED TO THE SW OF THE WAVE AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 06N93W TO 06N104W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N TO 08N E OF 80W...AND FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 82W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 99W AND 106W.


...DISCUSSION... WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE LOW REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WESTWARD TO A WEAK 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 14N139W THEN WEST OF THE AREA TO A BROAD 1007 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N148W. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED THE POSITION OF THE LOW AT 14N139W...HOWEVER WINDS REMAIN MODERATE TO FRESH WITHIN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GENERATED BETWEEN THE LOW AND A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTH- NORTHEAST NEAR 27N130W. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW LIES BENEATH AN OVERALL FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT DUE ITS LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 14N129W.

STRONG CARIBBEAN SEA TRADES CONTINUE TO FEED ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS. THE FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG E-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PULSING DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS WITH A PLUME OF SHORTER PERIOD SWELL REACHING 8 FT AND PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST AS 91W DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY.

$$ HUFFMAN

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