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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282149
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Jun 28 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A tropical wave n of 08N along 95W is moving westward at 15 kt.
The wave is passing under an upper trough with favorable
conditions for convection. Currently...scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is observed from 08N-11N within 240
nm e of the wave and from 11N to 14N within 300 nm w of the wave
axis.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 09N96W to an embedded
1011 mb low pres at 12N108W to 10.5N112W to 12N117W where
scatterometer winds indicate the ITCZ forms and continues
southwestward through an embedded 1011 mb surface low at 10N131W
to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is observed over and to the s of the monsoon trough within 120
nm either side of a line from 06N77W to 13N108W to 09N118W to
13N120W to 07N135W.

...DISCUSSION...

N of 15N e of 120W:

A nnw to sse orientated trough will meander e and w over the
Baja California peninsula this week supporting light to gentle
southerly flow across the Gulf waters through Wed, then increasing
to a gentle to moderate southerly breeze and continuing
through Fri.

An inverted trough is analyzed from 15N120W to 30N120W and
effectively separates the subtropical ridge from a 1014 mb high
pressure at 23N115W, with a ridge extending se to near 16N102W.
Light anticyclonic winds surround the high and ridge across the
waters w of 100W.

Strong N winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight
and again on Wed night with sea building to 9 ft as the resultant
ne wind wave mixes with long period sw swell.

S of 15N e of 120W:

Moderate monsoonal flow prevails s of the monsoon trough, while
gentle to moderate ne to e winds are observed n of the monsoon
trough.

Gulf of Papagayo gap winds of 15 to 20 kt from the NE to E are
expected each night through Thu night with an increase to 20 to
25 kt on Fri night. Seas are expected to max at 8 ft in and
downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo.

Long period southwesterly swell...combined seas to 10 ft...will
continue to propagate ne and mix with the n and ne swells
propagating out of the gap areas.

W of 120W:

A broad ridge dominates the EPAC waters to the n of 15N w of 120W.
A swath of ne 7-9 ft seas primarily due to ne swell is observed
n of 28N between 123-128W. These conditions will spread sw within
150 nm of a line from 30N128W to 23N133W on Wed.

Long period cross-equatorial SW swell have caused seas to build
to between 8 and 9 ft S of 10N and E of 125W. Seas will begin to
subside tonight.

$$
Nelson

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