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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272200
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 09.5N107.5W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE AN AREA OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 106W AND 112W. THE EDGE OF AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS CAPTURED THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04-12N ALONG 96W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 96W...AND NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 95W AND 98W.

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 09N120W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FAR TO THE NW OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 122W AND 125W. NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI.

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 12N132W WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT OF LOW CENTER. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE N SUPPORTS AN AREA OF NE 20-25 KT TRADES WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM N QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-9 FT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W-SW THROUGH FRI AND WEAKEN.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ IN THE EASTERN PAC DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THREE LOW PRES SYSTEMS AND A TROPICAL WAVE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF EACH OTHER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 108W AND 124W.


...DISCUSSION...

BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 30N128W DOMINATES MOST OF THE NORTHERN WATERS N OF 18N W OF 110W. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE NW WATERS AND EXTENDS FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AND TRANSITION INTO A QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH THROUGH THU NIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 27N132W.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONTINUED MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE WINDS PULSING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT.

$$ GR

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