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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292205 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAY 29 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is analyzed along 84W north of 05N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are noted from 07N to 09N within 120 nm of the axis.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N86W to low pressure near 10N93W 1011 mb to 09N100W to 09N105W to 13N115W to low pressure near 11N121W 1011 mb to 09N127W. The ITCZ axis extends from 09N127W to 09N131W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found from 06N to 13N between 100W and 108W. Scattered moderate convection is located from 04N to 07N between 138W and 140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of the axis between 84W-86W, and within 60 nm north of the axis between 123W-124W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the axis between 95W-98W...and also between 107W-108.5W.


...DISCUSSION...

High pressure covers the area to the 15N west of 112W with a ridge axis roughly along 32N133W to 26N127W to near 24N116W. The very tight pressure gradient from the past few days that was just north of the northeastern portion of the are has weaken. N swell that has been ushered into the north-central waters from this gradient are gradually subsiding north of 27N between 122W-128W with resultant seas of 8 feet. The swell energy is expected to dissipate by Monday afternoon, with seas subsiding to 6-7 feet there.

Ascat data from this afternoon depicted generally gentle to moderate northeast to east winds north of the convergence zone west of 114W, and light to variable winds east of 114W. Light to moderate southerly winds were indicated south of the monsoon and ITCZ zones.

A 1011 mb low pressure center is analyzed near 12N121W. Latest satellite imagery shows enhanced convection over and near the low. The convection is characterized as scattered moderate to isolated strong type within 60 nm of the low in the northwest quadrant, and scattered moderate type within 60 nm of the low in the northeast quadrant. The low is forecast to move northeast through Monday morning, then southeast thereafter while weakening. The low will be within a large area of southern hemespheric south to southwest swell.

$$ Aguirre

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