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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300301
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUL 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0245 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E AT 30/0300 UTC IS NEAR 8.2N 125.3W. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD...OR 280 DEG...13 KNOTS. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM E QUADRANT AND 210 NM OF CENTER. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOMETIME ON THU AND POSSIBLY A HURRICANE BY LATE FRI OR SAT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E AT 30/0300 UTC IS NEAR 16.6N 137.1W. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD...OR 265 DEG...14 KNOTS. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM IN THE E SEMICIRCLE. THIS CONVECTION IS WEAKENING WITH TIME AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT CROSSES 140W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS 84W/85W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... APPROACHING CENTRAL AMERICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W/98W FROM 07N TO 17N MOVING WEST AT 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 16N104W. THIS INTERACTION WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N TO 14N.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N86W TO 07N100W TO 08N115W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 82W AND 105W.


...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N139W TO 26N126W TO 20N111W. THE SLACKENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TYPICAL TROUGH THAT IS SEEN ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ALLOWED NW WINDS TO SUBSIDE TO DAY TO THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH RESULTANT SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT EXISTS BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER SURFACE PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E IS RESULTING A BROAD SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA FROM 17N TO 24N AND TO THE WEST OF 132W. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE W OF THE AREA ON THU...BEFORE FRESHENING AGAIN S OF 20N ON FRI AS THE STRENGTHENING TROPICAL CYCLONE...CURRENTLY DEPRESSION NINE-E TRACKS WNW W OF 130W.

GAP WINDS... THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SPILL ACROSS THE PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS THAT ARE TO THE EAST OF 90W. THE WINDS IN THIS AREA WILL HAVE DIMINISHED TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND LIKELY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AS NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ALLOWS THE WIND SPEEDS TO REACH THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AGAIN.

A NARROW PLUME OF NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER TONIGHT. THESE WINDS ALSO WILL PULSE AGAIN TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT THU INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON FRI.

$$ COBB

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