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AXPZ20 KNHC 181527
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU SEP 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR NEAR 17.3N 105.7W 988 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 18...OR ABOUT 150 MILES SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. AT 1500 UTC NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 102W-108W. POLO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NW TODAY AND PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...THEN GRADUALLY BEND MORE W-NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS BEGUN TO IMPACT POLO...AND WILL LIMIT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BEYOND THAT TIME...COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF POLO. AS POLO PASSES BY THE MEXICAN COASTLINE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OUTER BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE COASTAL ZONES FROM WESTERN GUERRERO TO JALISCO...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS LEADING TO FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY NORBERT AND ODILE. SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N84W TO 8N90W TO 11N102W...THEN RESUMES SW OF HURRICANE POLO NEAR 15N107W TO 11N124W. ITCZ FROM 11N124W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 84W-89W AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 100W-102W.


...DISCUSSION... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO 23N140W. NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT IS MAINTAINING SEAS TO 8-9 FT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT FRI.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS W OF 120W CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FURTHER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

LONG PERIOD SW SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL AFFECTING THE WATERS E OF 110W THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SUBSIDED AND WILL SLOWLY FADE THROUGH FRI...WITH A NEW AND SMALLER PULSE OF SW SWELL ACROSS THE EQUATOR OVER THE WEEKEND.

$$ DGS

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