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AXPZ20 KNHC 270959
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0930 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER TODAY IN ABOUT 18 HOURS...AND REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON FRIDAY EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING TO ABOUT 12 FT NEAR 14.5N95W ON SAT MORNING. GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER BRIEFLY SURGE TO GALE FORCE LATE SAT NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH LATE MON MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT BY MON EVENING.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 08N83W TO 06N88W AND TO 05N93W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 06N100W...AND IT CONTINUES TO 09N112W TO 07N125W TO 08N132W TO 07N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W...AND FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 124W AND 126W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W... AND FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 134W AND 136W...AND FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W.


...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 16N140W TO 10N130W. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 03N TO 20N FROM 126W WESTWARD. THE SCATTERED-TO- NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE ITCZ IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE PROXIMITY TO THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N135W TO 23N130W...CURVING TO 14N108W. A SMALL AREA OF EASTERLY TRADES SW OF THE RIDGE HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS. NW SWELLS HAVE BEEN MIXING WITH EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT ACROSS MOST OF PACIFIC WATERS THAT ARE TO THE WEST OF 130W. THE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY ON FRIDAY. THE COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE SUBSIDING TO LOWER THAN 8 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS THAT ARE TO THE NE OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-11 FT IN THE AREA THAT IS FROM 27N/28N NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 118W AND 130W. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NW AT 15-20 KT LATE FRIDAY AS THE N-N SWELLS REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 6-8 FT SEAS. THESE MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP GRADUALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY...AND THEN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT FROM 29.5N NORTHWARD EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO RELAX TO 10-15 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A 5-10 KT SW-NW WIND SHIFT.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON FRI NIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT FROM THE MIDNIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY UNTIL THE MIDNIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY.

$$ MT

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