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AXPZ20 KNHC 020303
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU OCT 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 17.8N 105.4W AT 02/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 95 NM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 395 NM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING WNW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 104W AND 108W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 103W AND 108W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N90W TO 14N100W THEN RESUMES NEAR 15N109W TO 11N120W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W...AND FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 111W AND 114W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 95W AND 104W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W...AND FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 115W AND 132W.


...DISCUSSION... WIND WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH A SUSTAINED FRESH S TO SW MONSOONAL FLOW S OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF 8-10 FT SEAS GENERALLY FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E TRACKS W-NW...THE AREA OF MONSOONAL FLOW WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD AND DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.

OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A POSITIVELY TILTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A BASE OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 31N116W. REMNANTS OF A NOW DIFFUSE COLD FRONT ARE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS WITH RESIDUAL SWELL GENERATING SEAS OF 8 FT GENERALLY N OF 29N BETWEEN 121W AND 130W IN NW SWELL. THE AREA OF SEAS IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE THURSDAY.

LASTLY...N-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BRIEFLY N OF 28N EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE NE WATERS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.

$$ HUFFMAN

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