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AXPZ20 KNHC 300910
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE JIMENA...CATEGORY FOUR...CENTERED NEAR 13.7N 128.4W AT 0900 UTC MOVING WNW 290 DEG AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN SURROUNDING A CIRCULAR EYE ABOUT 15 NM IN DIAMETER. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS ELSEWHERE IN CONVECTIVE BANDS WITHIN 300 NM NE AND 210 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF THE CENTER. THE SURROUNDING AREA OF HIGH SEAS AND STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND OUTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LARGE SWELL GENERATED BY JIMENA WILL EXPAND MORE RAPIDLY THAN THE AREA OF HIGH WINDS. BY 48 HOURS... EXPECT THE AREA OF 20-33 KT WINDS TO BE COMPLETELY WITHIN THE AREA OF SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER. JIMENA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A STRONG POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH A LARGE AREA OF STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS EVEN AS IT WEAKENS THROUGH TUE. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/ TPZ23 KNHC AND HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEPI/FZPN02 KWBC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM 10N84W TO 08N95W TO 10N102W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N108W 1009 MB TO 12N117W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 97W- 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OUTSIDE THE CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM 05N-09N E OF 85W.


...DISCUSSION...

A 1009 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N108W IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF CONVEXCTIVE ORGANIZATION. SAT IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTIVE CELLS ALIGNING SOMEWHAT INTO BANDS WELL AWAY FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER. NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HRS WITH SW FLOW INTO IT INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8 FT.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS N OF 20N W OF 115W. THE PRES GRADIENT E OF THE RIDGE WILL TIGHTEN MON...INCREASING NW FLOW TO 25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND 15-20 KT WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM W OF THE NORTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING TO 8-9 FT IN NW SWELL MON.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH GULF WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 5-6 FT.

$$ MUNDELL

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