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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242145
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Jun 24 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 08N91W to 11N117W.
ITCZ west of a trough from 15N116W to 07N120W, extending from
10N121W to 10N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection from 05N-09N east of 95W. Scattered moderate
convection from 08N-11N between 113W-123W.

...DISCUSSION...

Unseasonably weak surface pressure pattern prevails across the
entire forecast area. As a result, easterly winds are generally
light to gentle on either side of the convergence zone boundary.
Scatterometer data shows a few small areas of moderate to fresh
trade winds, but nothing very significant except for some fresh
southerly winds S of Panama, north of 05N and east of 81W. This
area is seeing active convection this afternoon. Long period SSW
cross-equatorial swell is finally starting to subside across the
region based on altimeter data. Expect this trend to continue
through the weekend. Model guidance suggests a surface low may
develop tonight or Sat near 11N123W from the trough mentioned
previously extending from 15N116W to 07N120W. Little change is
expected elsewhere.

$$
Mundell

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