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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020300
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT AUG 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

T.S. ISELLE WAS UP GRADED TO HURRICANE AT 02/0300 UTC. HURRICANE ISELLE IS CENTERED NEAR 14.7N 127.3W AT 02/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 1065 NM W-SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING W-NW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM NW OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 125W AND 128W. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N112W TO A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 11N112W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 108W AND 117W. CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES W NEAR 9 KT.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N78W ALONG 7N81W 9N90W 8N97W 11N104W TO 1007 MB LOW NEAR 11N112W TO 14N120W THEN RESUMES NEAR 13N130W TO SECOND 1007 MB LOW NEAR 11N139W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 8N E OF 93W TO COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 97W AND 100W.


...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 19N141W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE NE TO NEAR 27N126W DOMINATING THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 125W WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 15N112W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES. THIS UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 26N114W THROUGH 22N121W TO JUST N OF ISELLE NEAR 18N126W. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EPAC NEAR 12N87W TO 10N89W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 93W.

CONVECTION HAS COMPLETELY DIMINISHED NEAR THE 1007 MB LOW NEAR 11N139W WITH A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS REMAINING. AN ASCAT PASS EARLIER IN THE DAY SHOWED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER OVERNIGHT. SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE UP TO 9 FT IN MIXED NE AND SE SWELL. THE SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL SHIFT W AS THE LOW MOVES W OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

FRESH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TO NIGHT AND SAT WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT.

$$ PAW

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