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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250901
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAY 25 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVE...

The axis of a tropical wave was analyzed to the N of 06N near 79W. Currently scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N E of 81W.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 08N90W to 11N120W to 09N123W. The ITCZ extends from 09N123W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 120 nm N of the monsoon trough E of 88W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 120 nm N and 90 nm S of the monsoon trough between 110W and 116W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 120 nm N of the monsoon trough between 118W and 122W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 90 nm N and 120 nm S of the ITCZ between 131W and 138W.


...DISCUSSION...

High pressure of 1029 mb centered N of the area near 46N138W extends a ridge se to near 19N112W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure across Baja California is producing moderate to locally fresh northwest winds across the near and offshore waters of the Baja Peninsula. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the monsoon trough and ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds generally south of 22N and west of 120W. Several weak and transient areas of low pressure are currently present along the monsoon trough, and are forecast to continue along the monsoon trough through the remainder of the week. Trade winds near these low centers may occasionally increase to locally strong across the northern portion of the lows, especially when convection flares up. Seas across this trade wind zone will remain in the 5- 7 ft range through the end of the week. Over the far eastern waters, the pressure gradient is much weaker and supporting mainly light to gentle winds. Seas will build over the area to near 7 ft as a SW swell propagates into the area.

Gulf of California:

Weak low pressure has developed over the far northern Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail over the far northern Gulf of california while variable light to gentle winds are prevail across the southern Gulf of California. The weak low pressure will dissipate this morning with winds diminishing. A new weak low will develop late tonight and dissipate once again Thursday morning. Southwest to south winds across the southeastern half of the low are expected to increase to 20 kt again tonight, with seas building 4-5 ft.

$$ AL

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