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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260232
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN APR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N90W TO 07N111W THEN RESUMES FROM 06N115W TO 07N126W THEN RESUMES FROM 07N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 133W. ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.


...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS FROM 32N113W TO 26N126W TO 26N140W. DRY AND STABLE AIR IS PUSHING IN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TROUGH WHILE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE EXISTS WITHIN 90-120 NM SE OF THE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN U.S. CALIFORNIA. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA AROUND POINT CONCEPTION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL BUILD FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL TO 8-11 FT N OF 25N BETWEEN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 125W LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS. ASSOCIATED FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIP SOUTHWARD TO 25N BY SUN NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MON EVENING.

A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 32N139W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE OF THE HIGH THROUGH 30N129W TO 17N105W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGING AND N OF THE LOWER PRESSURES ALONG THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES.

A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 12N111W TO 04N113W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 109W AND 113W. THE WESTERN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N126W TO 06N128W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 122W AND 127W...AND ALSO FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 127W AND 132W. THE AREA OF TRADES WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 48 HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WEAKENS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN U.S. CALIFORNIA WILL ENTER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATER TONIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT N OF 29.5N AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARRIVING BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE SUN AS THE FRONT WEAKENS.

E OF 110W...SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WHILE ALTIMETER DATA SAMPLED 4-7 FT SEAS. LIGHT TO MODERATE S-SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHILE WINDS WILL PULSE TO MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

$$ LEWITSKY

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