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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291522
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1430 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM HERNAN HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO POST TROPICAL LOW AT 29/1500 UTC. THE REMNANTS OF HERNAN IS CENTERED NEAR 23.5N 121.1W OR ABOUT 620 NM W OF SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING W-NW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM IN NW QUADRANT. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE N OF 12N ALONG 95W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 12N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 6N113W TO 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N113W TO 16N110W MOVING W 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 11N107W TO 14N112W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 108W AND 114W.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N93W ALONG 7N93W TO 7N97W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 10N108W THEN RESUMES 10N115W ALONG 6N120W TO 9N126W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 3N TO 6N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 117W AND 120W.


...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM 30N126W TO 16N126W...DELIVERING DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE ITCZ W OF 123W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE RELATIVELY MOIST AREAS ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR THE LOW AT 11N127W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 126W TO 130W.

PERSISTENT SHEAR AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...ALONG WITH COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES AND MORE STABLE AIR ARE TOGETHER CONTRIBUTING TO THE WEAKENING OF HERNAN.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N TO 15N W OF 139W REMAINS NEAR A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 16N139W WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PERSISTING N OF THE LOW MOSTLY DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE AREA. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT IN THIS AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES. THE LOW WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA THROUGH TODAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS N OF THE LOW BY EARLY MORNING WED.

THE N WINDS TO 25 KT THAT HAVE BEEN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS TO 9 FT HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG NEAR 95W. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BY EVENING.

WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AROUND 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 20 KT AND 8 FT BY LATE WED MORNING.

$$ PAW

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