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AXPZ20 KNHC 020248
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO 105W/106W N OF 12N INTO THE PACIFIC COASTAL STATES OF SE MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS AND EXTENDED N TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUADALAJARA AND LAS ISLAS TRES MARIAS. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS ONE TO WATCH WITH INTEREST AS GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ITS INTERACTION WITH A PRE EXISTING PERTURBATION WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 108W MAY AID IN POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE TO ORGANIZE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 116W/117W AT 1800 UTC HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO. LONG PERIOD SATELLITE LOOPS AND TPW ANIMATIONS SUGGEST THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING MONSOONAL CIRCULATION EXTENDING FROM 120W NE TO THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS ALONG 104W/105W. THIS WAVE HAS THUS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE 0000 UTC SURFACE MAP.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N75W TO 07.5N80W TO 16N104W TO 10N123W TO 10N131W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 81W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 92W AND 99W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 18N TO 21.5N E OF 110W TO MEXICAN COAST.


...DISCUSSION...

A 1013 MB LOW...THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE...IS CENTERED NEAR 31N140W. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS VERY BROAD...WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS N AND NW PORTIONS. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 8 FT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

STRONG SW MONSOON FLOW PREVAILS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ROUGHLY FROM 120W TO 104W WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE. THE STRONG SW MONSOON FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 11 FT BY WED MORNING. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO TRANSPORT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE COASTAL STATES OF MEXICO FROM GUERRERO TO JALISCO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LEADING TO VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SW SWELL FROM THE SOUTH PACIFIC WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ROUGHLY S OF 02N BETWEEN 118W AND 132W TUE MORNING...AND S OF 07N BETWEEN 106W AND 134W BY WED MORNING.

$$ STRIPLING

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