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AXPZ20 KNHC 312142
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUL 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE DEVELOPED AT 31/2100 UTC. THE CENTER OF T.S. ISELLE AT 31/2100 UTC IS NEAR 12.7N 122.3W. ISELLE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 295 DEGREES 9 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP4. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 120W AND 124W...AND FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 124W AND 130W.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 105W/106W FROM 18N TO 10N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 109W...FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 109W...AND FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 101W AND 108W.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO 09N86W TO 08N95W TO 10N111W TO T.S. ISELLE...TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N135W TO 11N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 89W AND 91W...AND FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 11W AND 116W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 93W AND 99W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 99W AND 101W.


...DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 19N140W TO 26N128W BEYOND THE CALIFORNIA BORDER WITH BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N112W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N TO 28N BETWEEN 106W AND 116W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF MEXICO FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 105W AND 108W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 24N122W 17N126W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N117W TO 20N121W TO 15N125W BEYOND 15N140W.

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N135W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 136W AND 138W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 133W AND 138W. THE FORECAST IS FOR THIS LOW CENTER TO MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BRINGING WITH IT WIND SPEEDS TO 20 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET WITHIN 300 NM TO 360 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N126W 25N128W 23N128W. THIS TROUGH IS THE REMNANT OF HERNAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SHIP OBSERVATION FROM 31/1815 UTC SHOWS AN EAST WIND 30 KNOTS FROM 10N TO 11N ALONG 87W. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. NORTHEAST WINDS TO 20 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO START AROUND SUNRISE ON FRIDAY MORNING FROM 10N TO 11N FROM 88W EASTWARD...LASTING UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS TO 20 KNOTS WILL START AGAIN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT ON EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON OF SATURDAY.

$$ MT

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