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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251558
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1558 UTC Mon Jul 25 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Georgette is centered at 17.5N 125.3W at 1200 UTC,
moving northwest or 315 degrees at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds
remain 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is at 961 mb. The cloud top temperatures are a little warmer
indicating Georgette has weakened slightly. Scattered strong
convection is noted within 90 nm in the northwest semicircle and
60 nm in the southeast semicircle. Georgette is expected to
continue to weaken as it moves northwest over cooler water during
the next couple of days, eventually diminishing to below tropical
storm force by Wednesday night. Refer to the latest NHC forecast
advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more
details.

Tropical Storm Frank is centered at 20.4N 113.9W at 1500 UTC, or
about 270 nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja California and
about 150 nm north-northeast of Clarion Island. Frank is moving
west, or 280 degrees at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds remain 55
kt with gusts to 65 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is
994 mb. Scattered strong convection is noted within 150 nm in the
southeast semicircle and 60 nm northwest semicircle of the low
level center of Frank. Northwest shear continues to impact Frank.
The low level center was partially exposed earlier this morning,
but appears to be into the main convection in the latest satellite
images. Frank will continue to move west- northwest and start to
weaken by Tuesday afternoon then move northwest before becoming a
post- tropical remnant low Thursday. Large south swell from Frank
continue to impact coast of Baja California Sur, generating rough
and dangerous surf along the local regional coastlines. Refer to
the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details.

Also see latest high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts
associated with these systems.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave N of 10N along 97W/98W is triggering scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection near the Gulf of
Tehuantepec from 12N to 17N between 93W and 100W. This wave will
shift to the west of the Tehuantepec region and the adjacent near
and offshore coastal waters during the next 24-36 hours.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near 09N85W to 08N92W to 10N105W.
The ITCZ continues from 10N105W to 11N109W to 07N118W then
resumes from 13N132W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 150 nm south of the axis between 85W
and 95W. Scattered moderate convection is present within 120 nm
north and 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 105W and 115W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is evident within 90 nm
either side of the ITCZ west of 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

North of 15N and east of 120W:

Tropical Storm Frank continues drifting slowly westward away from
Socorro and the Revillagigedo Islands. Winds and seas will slowly
improve for these locales. However, outer bands of moderate
convection along the southeast side of Frank persist across the
islands this morning. Southerly swell associated with Frank that
impacting the area around Los Cabos and the entrance to the Gulf
of California will taper off today as the storm shifts westward.
The swell will continue to impact the Pacific coast of Baja
California Sur, and mix with northerly swell in the waters of Baja
California Norte through mid week.

South of 15N and east of 120W:

Moderate to locally fresh east winds are expected across and just
downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight hours
during the next several days. The winds will be augmented by
nocturnal drainage flow.

West of 120W:

High pressure is building north of the area and into the sub-
tropical areas north of 25N in the wake of Estelle, which has
dissipated west of the area. This is allowing a modest increase
in trade wind flow farther south in the deep tropics west of 130W,
supporting an area of scattered showers and thunderstorms along
the ITCZ boundary. Georgette will track northwest and weaken the
ridge again during the next couple of days, allowing trade winds
to diminish.

Swell generated from Georgette, and Frank as it crosses west of
120W Tuesday night, will interact with northerly swell generated
from strong winds west of the California coast. Northerly swell
to 9 ft will continue to propagate into the waters west of 120W
and north of 24N into mid week.

$$
Christensen

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