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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061520
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUL 6 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 11N131W IS MOVING WEST- NORTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POOR...BUT IS IMPROVING AS IT MOVES INTO A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS IT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 2- 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES NW TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM BY TUE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 127W IS MERGING INTO THE LARGER SCALE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR 11N131W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W N OF 10N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87W-92W.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 07N81W TO 09N87W TO 07N92W TO 06N1109W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N109W TO 07N119W TO 10N122W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 08N E OF 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 87W AND 92W.


...DISCUSSION...

ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 13N104W...WHICH IS ENHANCING A LINE OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13.5N102W TO 12N106W TO 09N107W. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO EVIDENT MOVING W ALONG 115W-116W S OF 15N.

WEAK 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 28N128W EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS N OF 21N...W OF 115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH THE DEVELOPING LOW NEAR 11N131W IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN 120 NM N AND SE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. EXPECT WINDS TO CONSOLIDATE AND WRAP AROUND THE NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES NW THROUGH WED...PRODUCING 20-30 KT WINDS WITHIN 360 NM OF THE CENTER EXCEPT IN THE SW QUADRANT WHERE WINDS WILL BE 15- 20 KT...AND MAX SEAS BUILDING TO 12-14 FT.

STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PULSE IN A DIURNAL CYCLE THE NEXT 2 DAYS WITH HIGHEST WINDS OVER 25 KT EXPECTED DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY 8 FT OR LESS BETWEEN 88W-92W DOWNSTREAM FROM THE AREA OF MAX WINDS THROUGH WED.

A LARGE AREA OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL SWEEP NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TO AROUND 120W THROUGH WED. SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE THU AND FRI.

$$ MUNDELL

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