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AXPZ20 KNHC 102151
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED FEB 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 20 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE THU MORNING...THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ON THU AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN INCREASING THE FLOW TO STRONG GALE FORCE BEGINNING LATE THU NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUN MORNING. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE NE SWELL THAT WILL PROPAGATE SE THROUGH SW...MERGING WITH ENE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT...MERGING WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL AND ALSO MERGING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 04-10N BETWEEN 90-103W TONIGHT...WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 93-110W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN EARLY TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE ON FRI. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR FLOW EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 07N96W...RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 15 FT NEAR 09N89W ON THU. PATCHES OF STRONG NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON THU NIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 12N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ONLY 8 FT IN THE LIMITED FETCH. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ FORMS NEAR 03N89W AND EXTENDS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N111W THEN TURNS SW TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER AND TO THE N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N87W TO 08N111W TO 05N120W.


...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 25N120W TO 17N102W. THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE N-NE FLOW ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 108- 120W THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. COMBINED SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE PRIMARILY DUE TO LONG PERIOD SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. LARGE NW SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT...WILL ARRIVE AT 28N102W ON FRI AND REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA ON FRI NIGHT...AND REACH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA ON SAT...AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH SUN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 97- 108W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED STRONG GALE EVENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF 97W. MODERATE NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 04N W OF 86W. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 9 FT NEAR 06N81W.

ELSEWHERE FROM 00-32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 06-12N W OF 125W TONIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE WINDS WAVE AND LONG PERIOD S AND N SWELL. NW LONG PERIOD SWELL...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-11 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 110W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY THU...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD FROM THE W AGAIN LATE THU AS ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW SWELL PROPAGATES SE ACROSS THE TROPICS. A SURFACE HIGH MEANDERING NEAR 31N127W CONTINUES TO BLOCK THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS. A STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY WASHING OUT FROM 32N129W TO 25N140W AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N138W TO 30N143W. THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM 32N132W TO 25N140W ON FRI AND QUICKLY DISSIPATE. ALTHOUGH EXPECTING ONLY A 10-15 KT SW-W-NW-N WIND SHIFT WITH THE FRONT THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT LONG PERIOD NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 17 FT NEAR 30N140W ON THU NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE ON FRI.

$$ NELSON

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