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AXPZ20 KNHC 020923
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU APR 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N92W TO 03N110W TO 04N120W TO 05N130W TO BEYOND 03N140W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 132W AND 135W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.


...DISCUSSION...

A 1036 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 37N143W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 20N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS N OF 26N BETWEEN 120W-130W AND FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS N OF 21N W OF 130W. AN ALTIMETER PASS AND FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN THIS AREA. THE HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WHILE SLIGHTLY WEAKENING. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS MAINLY N OF 20N W OF 130W DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NW SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH NE WIND WAVES TO BUILD SEAS TO 9 WEST OF LINE FROM 30N116W TO 25N116W TO 20N130W TO 16N140W BY THU EVENING. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELL WILL REACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA BY FRI NIGHT.

MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION E OF 110W EXCEPT FOR GAP WINDS OF 20-25 KT DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. A NEW BATCH OF CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL IS SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTH WATERS AND COULD REACH THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...SOUTH OF LOS CABOS...LATE TODAY...BRINGING ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS TO THOSE COASTS.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER COLOMBIA AND ENTERS THE EPAC NEAR 03N77W TO 00N84W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND E OF 80W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR. FARTHER WEST...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ON THE 0600 UTC MAP FROM 12N118W TO 07N121W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 119W AND 121W.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PULSING OF NOCTURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH SAT MORNING...REACHING 20-25 KT BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-7 FT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF. A STRONGER GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS GULF ON SUN...WITH WINDS OF 25-30 KT EXTENDING SW AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 92W BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING HIGH PRES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE ISTHMUS THE TEHUANTEPEC. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE FRI NIGHT...GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SAT REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO AROUND 12 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS.

$$ GR

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