Home


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271529
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU AUG 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE IGNACIO IS CENTERED NEAR 12.9N 139.5W AT 27/1500 UTC MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT IGNACIO IS STRENGTHENING A LITTLE MORE. THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AROUND THE CENTER. CURRENTLY...NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. A BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF CENTER WITHIN AROUND 90 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 10N135W TO 07N140W TO 07N145W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO E OF CENTER FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 128W AND 132W. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LATER TODAY. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM JIMENA IS CENTERED NEAR 12.4N 117.7W AT 27/1500 UTC MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. JIMENA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER AND MORE PRONOUNCED BANDING DEVELOPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION. CURRENTLY SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 115W AND 120W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS TO THE SE OF THE CENTER COVERING FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 111W AND 118W. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BY FRI MORNING NEAR 13N122W PER LATEST NHC ADVISORY. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 09N94W TO 08N108W. NO ITCZ IS PRESENTLY IDENTIFIED. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND N OF 10N BETWEEN 88W AND 100W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 102W AND 108W.


...DISCUSSION...

A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N129W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N110W. OUTSIDE OF HURRICANE IGNACIO AND TROPICAL STORM JIMENA...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED NW OF THE AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS FRI WHILE DISSIPATING.

LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 17-18 SECOND RANGE HAS REACHED THE MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THESE COASTS. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF SW SWELL WILL REACH THE EQUATOR THIS AFTERNOON AND PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE S CENTRAL WATERS ON FRI.

GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...PULSING NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ARE FORECAST TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING...AND AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 8-9 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15- 20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

$$ GR

Home