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AXPZ20 KNHC 021005
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAR 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...


.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A SURFACE TROUGH STARTS NEAR 06N81W...AND IT CONTINUES TO 07N83W TO 05N88W TO 06N93W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N93W TO 06N96W TO 05N104W TO 07N115W TO 04N126W TO 06N136W BEYOND 06N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W...AND FROM 04N TO 05N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 78W AND 79W.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N118W TO 17N121W TO 15N122W TO 12N125W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH...AND FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 113W AND 117W.


...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 34N120W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 26N126W AND 05N123W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG 30N116W TO 26N118W TO 22N124W. AREAS OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT. THE WIND SPEEDS STAY IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AND THE SEA HEIGHTS STAY IN THE 8 TO 10 FOOT RANGE...DOWNSTREAM FROM THE COLD FRONT POSITION...IN AN AREA OF TYPICAL TRADEWIND FLOW...FROM 10N TO 20N FROM 130W WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N118W TO 17N121W TO 15N122W TO 12N125W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH...AND FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 113W AND 117W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N142W 27N137W TO 22N130W.

ELSEWHERE AT LOW LEVELS...GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA E OF 120W...WHERE ALL THE TYPICAL GAP AREA ARE SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN. MOST OF THESE GAP WIND LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS MAXIMIZE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT...DUE TO THE ENHANCEMENT OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THIS GULF THIS MORNING...WITH S-SW 15-25 KT WINDS OCCURRING N OF 26N AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN A VERY NARROW BAND SE OF THE FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MON AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SE...WITH WINDS SHIFTING W AROUND 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT MON.

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE ASCAT DATA FROM 02/0406 UTC SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS RANGING FROM 25 KNOTS TO 30 KNOTS FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 94.5W AND 95W. THE FORECAST COMPARATIVELY SMALLER AREAS OF 30 KNOT WINDS EMBEDDED WITHIN COMPARATIVELY LARGER AREAS OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 11 FEET NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AN AREA OF SWELL IS GENERATED EVENTUALLY... DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA...WITH SEA HEIGHTS THERE REACHING 9 TO 10 FEET. THE NEXT GALE-FORCE WIND EVENT... WITH WIND SPEEDS REACHING AT LEAST 40 KNOTS...WILL START EARLY ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 15-25 KT WILL GENERALLY CONTINUES ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF...WITH NOCTURNAL MAXIMA PULSING TO 25-30 KT TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT...AND A MUCH WEAKER EVENT ON TUE NIGHT. NE WINDS 15-25 KT ARE ALSO LIKELY TO SPILL ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF FONSECA EACH NIGHT DURING THE NIGHTTIME MAX ACROSS PAPAGAYO.

THE GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 05N FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD 8-9 FT TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT.

$$ MT

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