Home


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030239
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAY 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N79W TO 08N92W TO 06N101W TO 10N116W TO 06N128W TO 06.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 420 NM S OF TROUGH E OF 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 330 NM N AND 420 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 105W AND 133W. 134W.


...DISCUSSION...

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...AS THE E TO W RIDGING ACROSS THE TROPICS HAS BUILT NORTHWARD ALONG 112-114W TO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. SCATTERED CONVECTION PULSING NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THIS BROAD RIDGE THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA E OF 146W. TO THE NW...A TUTT LIKE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SW THROUGH A SERIES OF WEAKENING MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONES THROUGH 25N140W TO NEAR THE E COAST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. A TROPICAL JETSTREAM WITH PEAK WINDS 85-110 KT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 16N150W AND MOVES NE OVER THE RIDGE THEN DIVES SE AND WEAKENS ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND INTO THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRAG EWD AND INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY MON AND BRING STRONG JET DYNAMICS ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND INTO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY MON MORNING.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS W PORTIONS...CENTERED ON A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 37N143W...EXTENDING E TO THE NW COAST OF THE U.S. AND SE TO NEAR 17N117W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADEWINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA W OF 130W. AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER PASSES SUGGESTED WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KT E OF 120W ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION AN ONGOING NORTHERLY GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA E OF 90W...AND NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 105W...HAS INCREASED MODESTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E OF 130W THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH SUN THROUGH MON.

ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS 20-25 KT WERE DEPICTED N OF 14N BY A NOON TIME SCATTEROMETER PASS...WHERE SEAS WERE 8 TO 10 FT WITH BUILDING SW SWELL. A WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE NE WINDS FUNNELING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 KT TONIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH LESS THAN 20 KT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LARGE SW SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC SWELL CONTINUES TO SPREAD N AND NE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...AND HAS REACHED THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING. MORNING ALTIMETER PASSES MEASURED SEAS 12-14 FT W THROUGH SW OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS...WHILE SEAS ACROSS THE COLOMBIAN COASTAL WATERS HAD REACHED 8 FT. THIS LARGE AND VERY STRONG SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND AFFECT THE ENTIRE AREA E OF 132W. SIGNIFICANT SWELL WILL ALSO ENTER THE S PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WERE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 7-10 FT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE LARGE VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL GENERATE VERY LARGE SURF AND DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS ALONG THE REGIONAL COASTS AND WITHIN THE SURFZONE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

$$ STRIPLING

Home