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AXPZ20 KNHC 031109 CCA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAY 03 2015

ADDING ADDITIONAL WORDING ABOUT LARGE SWELL EVENT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 6N80W TO 4N95W TO 8N115W TO 6N127W. ITCZ 6N127W TO 8N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 77W-91W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 330 NM S OF AXIS FROM 117W-122W.


...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION EXTENDS FROM CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N128W TO 25N140W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SE OF THE TROUGH AND DOMINATES MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 13N113W. A 100-125 KT JETSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 21N140W TO 30N120W INTO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS N OF 20N W OF 110W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 105W. NLY WINDS 20-30 KT WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THEN WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 20 KT SUN NIGHT.

LARGE SW SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC SWELL CONTINUES TO SPREAD N AND NE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...AND HAS REACHED THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING. MORNING ALTIMETER PASSES MEASURED SEAS 12-14 FT W THROUGH SW OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS...WHILE SEAS ACROSS THE COLOMBIAN COASTAL WATERS HAD REACHED 8 FT. THIS LARGE AND VERY STRONG SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND AFFECT THE ENTIRE AREA E OF 132W. SIGNIFICANT SWELL WILL ALSO ENTER THE S PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WERE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 7-10 FT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE LARGE VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL GENERATE VERY LARGE SURF AND DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS ALONG THE REGIONAL COASTS AND WITHIN THE SURFZONE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

$$ DGS

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