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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232130
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUL 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC.


....SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N127W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW IN THE SE AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NW QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF THIS IS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES W OR WNW AT 10 TO 15 KT.


...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 10N90W MOVING W 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE...THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 8N ALONG 102W MOVING W 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ GENERALLY FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 104W AND 109W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N114W TO 09N117W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 09N TO 15N.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N127W TO 18N129W MOVING W 15 KT. THE 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES IS LOCATED AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IN THE AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 08N95W. ITCZ FROM 08N95W TO 09N110W TO 1008 MB LOW 11N127W TO 1009 MB LOW 09N138W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 133W AND 137W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 117W. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 100W.


...DISCUSSION... A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N W OF 125W. THE MEAN AXIS EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 29N133W TO 18N135W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS OVER THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 120W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ALONG NEARLY THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE ITCZ. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER SW NEW MEXICO NEAR 32N107W WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ANTICYCLONE INTO THE E PACIFIC TO A COL NEAR 22N120W. A SMALL UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED JUST S OF THE UPPER RIDGE NEAR 19N112W WAS BECOMING STATIONARY.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN HAVE PULSED THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TODAY. A 1544 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED AN AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT INTO THU AND AGAIN THU NIGHT AND FRI. SEAS BUILD TO 9 FT DURING EACH PULSE.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH NLY WINDS 20-25 KT BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 20 KT LESS AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT THU AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W WITH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.

$$ COBB

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