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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041525
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAR 4 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL INDUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FUNNEL COLD AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE THU NIGHT. EXPECT SUDDEN INCREASE IN WINDS TO GALE FORCE AT 0600 UTC EARLY FRI MORNING... FOLLOWED BY PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALES IN THE REGION THROUGH SUN MORNING. MAX SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15-16 FT EARLY FRI...AND REACH A PEAK AROUND 18-20 FT FRI NIGHT.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

WIND CONVERGENCE NEGLIGIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE TODAY AS PRIMARY CONVERGENCE ZONE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. WEAK ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM 06N132W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

LINGERING TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N115W TO 15N111W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 111W AND 113W.


...DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 15N121W. A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 25N109W TO 14N118W IS A REMNANT COLD FRONT.

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADES CENTERED NEAR 14N133W. EXPECT TRADES TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA MOVES AWAY AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS REACHING 25 KT DURING MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN THU.

NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THU NIGHT IN NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS NW MEXICO AND HIGH PRES BUILDS W OF CALIFORNIA. 20-25 KT NW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 26N LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

$$ MUNDELL

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